Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, res...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3592379 2024-06-23T07:53:11+00:00 Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Klose, A. Donges, J. Feudel, U. Winkelmann, R. 2024-05-27 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609D-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609F-2 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609D-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609F-2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Earth System Dynamics info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2024 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024 2024-06-11T14:10:08Z The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive–negative feedback loop governing their interaction with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive–negative tipping feedback loop in a physically motivated conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: herein, we distinguish between overshoot/bifurcation tipping cascades, leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC, and rate-induced tipping cascades, where the AMOC, despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point, tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland. The occurrence of these different cascades is affected by the ice sheet disintegration time and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its timescales. Our results suggest that it is necessary not only to avoid surpassing the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects. 1 Introduction 2 Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as interacting tipping elements 3 Conceptual models describing individual tipping dynamics and interactions 3.1 Greenland Ice Sheet evolution with a one-dimensional ice sheet model including melt–elevation feedback 3.2 AMOC evolution using a box model of the global ocean 3.3 Modelling interactions of GIS and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Greenland Earth System Dynamics 15 3 635 652 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive–negative feedback loop governing their interaction with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive–negative tipping feedback loop in a physically motivated conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: herein, we distinguish between overshoot/bifurcation tipping cascades, leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC, and rate-induced tipping cascades, where the AMOC, despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point, tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland. The occurrence of these different cascades is affected by the ice sheet disintegration time and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its timescales. Our results suggest that it is necessary not only to avoid surpassing the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects. 1 Introduction 2 Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as interacting tipping elements 3 Conceptual models describing individual tipping dynamics and interactions 3.1 Greenland Ice Sheet evolution with a one-dimensional ice sheet model including melt–elevation feedback 3.2 AMOC evolution using a box model of the global ocean 3.3 Modelling interactions of GIS and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Klose, A. Donges, J. Feudel, U. Winkelmann, R. |
spellingShingle |
Klose, A. Donges, J. Feudel, U. Winkelmann, R. Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
author_facet |
Klose, A. Donges, J. Feudel, U. Winkelmann, R. |
author_sort |
Klose, A. |
title |
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_short |
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_full |
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_fullStr |
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_sort |
rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the greenland ice sheet and the atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609D-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609F-2 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609D-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-609F-2 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
635 |
op_container_end_page |
652 |
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1802644709972115456 |