Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood,...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF1-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF3-5 |
id |
ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3521839 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3521839 2023-08-27T04:05:48+02:00 Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming Wunderling, N. Donges, J. Kurths, J. Winkelmann, R. 2021 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF1-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF3-5 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF1-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF3-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Earth System Dynamics info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021 2023-08-02T02:02:13Z With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland West Antarctica Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica Earth System Dynamics 12 2 601 619 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, N. Donges, J. Kurths, J. Winkelmann, R. |
spellingShingle |
Wunderling, N. Donges, J. Kurths, J. Winkelmann, R. Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
author_facet |
Wunderling, N. Donges, J. Kurths, J. Winkelmann, R. |
author_sort |
Wunderling, N. |
title |
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
title_short |
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
title_full |
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
title_fullStr |
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
title_sort |
interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF1-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF3-5 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland West Antarctica |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF1-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7DF3-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
601 |
op_container_end_page |
619 |
_version_ |
1775357546053238784 |