Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Introduction Climate tipping points (CTPs) are a source of growing scientific, policy, and public concern. They occur when change in large parts of the climate system—known as tipping elements—become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3521080 2024-06-23T07:47:43+00:00 Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points Armstrong McKay, D. Staal, A. Abrams, J. Winkelmann, R. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Fetzer, I. Cornell, S. Rockström, J. Lenton, T. 2022-09-09 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D1-0 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D3-E eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D1-0 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D3-E Science info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950 2024-06-11T14:10:08Z Introduction Climate tipping points (CTPs) are a source of growing scientific, policy, and public concern. They occur when change in large parts of the climate system—known as tipping elements—become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant impacts, including substantial sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, dieback of biodiverse biomes such as the Amazon rainforest or warm-water corals, and carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nine policy-relevant tipping elements and their CTPs were originally identified by Lenton et al. (2008). We carry out the first comprehensive reassessment of all suggested tipping elements, their CTPs, and the timescales and impacts of tipping. We also highlight steps to further improve understanding of CTPs, including an expert elicitation, a model intercomparison project, and early warning systems leveraging deep learning and remotely sensed data. Rational Since the original identification of tipping elements there have been substantial advances in scientific understanding from paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies. Additional tipping elements have been proposed (e.g., parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet) and the status of others (e.g., Arctic summer sea ice) has been questioned. Observations have revealed that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet may have already passed a tipping point. Potential early warning signals of the Greenland ice sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Amazon rainforest destabilization have been detected. Multiple abrupt shifts have been found in climate models. Recent work has suggested that up to 15 tipping elements are now active (Lenton et al., 2019). Hence it is timely to synthesize this new knowledge to provide a revised shortlist of potential tipping elements and their CTP thresholds. Results We identify nine global “core” tipping elements which contribute substantially to Earth system functioning and seven regional “impact” tipping elements which ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Sea ice Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland Science 377 6611 |
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English |
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Introduction Climate tipping points (CTPs) are a source of growing scientific, policy, and public concern. They occur when change in large parts of the climate system—known as tipping elements—become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant impacts, including substantial sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, dieback of biodiverse biomes such as the Amazon rainforest or warm-water corals, and carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nine policy-relevant tipping elements and their CTPs were originally identified by Lenton et al. (2008). We carry out the first comprehensive reassessment of all suggested tipping elements, their CTPs, and the timescales and impacts of tipping. We also highlight steps to further improve understanding of CTPs, including an expert elicitation, a model intercomparison project, and early warning systems leveraging deep learning and remotely sensed data. Rational Since the original identification of tipping elements there have been substantial advances in scientific understanding from paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies. Additional tipping elements have been proposed (e.g., parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet) and the status of others (e.g., Arctic summer sea ice) has been questioned. Observations have revealed that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet may have already passed a tipping point. Potential early warning signals of the Greenland ice sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Amazon rainforest destabilization have been detected. Multiple abrupt shifts have been found in climate models. Recent work has suggested that up to 15 tipping elements are now active (Lenton et al., 2019). Hence it is timely to synthesize this new knowledge to provide a revised shortlist of potential tipping elements and their CTP thresholds. Results We identify nine global “core” tipping elements which contribute substantially to Earth system functioning and seven regional “impact” tipping elements which ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Armstrong McKay, D. Staal, A. Abrams, J. Winkelmann, R. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Fetzer, I. Cornell, S. Rockström, J. Lenton, T. |
spellingShingle |
Armstrong McKay, D. Staal, A. Abrams, J. Winkelmann, R. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Fetzer, I. Cornell, S. Rockström, J. Lenton, T. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
author_facet |
Armstrong McKay, D. Staal, A. Abrams, J. Winkelmann, R. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Fetzer, I. Cornell, S. Rockström, J. Lenton, T. |
author_sort |
Armstrong McKay, D. |
title |
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
title_short |
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
title_full |
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
title_fullStr |
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
title_sort |
exceeding 1.5°c global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D1-0 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D3-E |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Sea ice |
op_source |
Science |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D1-0 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-78D3-E |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950 |
container_title |
Science |
container_volume |
377 |
container_issue |
6611 |
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1802651884082692096 |