Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasin...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3521034 2023-08-27T04:09:46+02:00 Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model Wunderling, N. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Loriani, S. McKay, A. I., D. Ritchie, P. Sakschewski, B. Donges, J. 2023-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7820-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7822-6 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7820-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7822-6 Nature Climate Change info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9 2023-08-02T02:01:45Z Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Greenland Nature Climate Change 13 1 75 82 |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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English |
description |
Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, N. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Loriani, S. McKay, A. I., D. Ritchie, P. Sakschewski, B. Donges, J. |
spellingShingle |
Wunderling, N. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Loriani, S. McKay, A. I., D. Ritchie, P. Sakschewski, B. Donges, J. Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
author_facet |
Wunderling, N. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Loriani, S. McKay, A. I., D. Ritchie, P. Sakschewski, B. Donges, J. |
author_sort |
Wunderling, N. |
title |
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
title_short |
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
title_full |
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
title_fullStr |
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
title_sort |
global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7820-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7822-6 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7820-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-7822-6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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13 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
75 |
op_container_end_page |
82 |
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1775351342262386688 |