Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate
Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely he...
Published in: | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3494496 2023-08-27T04:10:52+02:00 Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate Carney, M. Kantz, H. Nicol, M. 2022-11-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86C-E http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86E-C eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2105.04267 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86C-E http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86E-C info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1 2023-08-02T01:41:43Z Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum wind speeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum wind speeds for all regions along the coast, with the highest maximum wind speeds occurring along the northeast seaboard. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 61 11 1635 1648 |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum wind speeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum wind speeds for all regions along the coast, with the highest maximum wind speeds occurring along the northeast seaboard. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carney, M. Kantz, H. Nicol, M. |
spellingShingle |
Carney, M. Kantz, H. Nicol, M. Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
author_facet |
Carney, M. Kantz, H. Nicol, M. |
author_sort |
Carney, M. |
title |
Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
title_short |
Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
title_full |
Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
title_fullStr |
Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate |
title_sort |
hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86C-E http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86E-C |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2105.04267 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86C-E http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-A86E-C |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
container_volume |
61 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1635 |
op_container_end_page |
1648 |
_version_ |
1775353236197212160 |