Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves
Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3492459 2024-02-11T10:06:05+01:00 Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves Beobide-Arsuaga, G. Düsterhus, A. Müller, W. Barnes, E. Baehr, J. 2023-01-28 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9972-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9974-5 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL100727 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9972-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9974-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Geophysical Research Letters info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100727 2024-01-15T00:49:59Z Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs. © 2023. The Authors. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Geophysical Research Letters 50 2 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs. © 2023. The Authors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beobide-Arsuaga, G. Düsterhus, A. Müller, W. Barnes, E. Baehr, J. |
spellingShingle |
Beobide-Arsuaga, G. Düsterhus, A. Müller, W. Barnes, E. Baehr, J. Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
author_facet |
Beobide-Arsuaga, G. Düsterhus, A. Müller, W. Barnes, E. Baehr, J. |
author_sort |
Beobide-Arsuaga, G. |
title |
Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
title_short |
Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
title_full |
Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
title_fullStr |
Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves |
title_sort |
spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of european summer heatwaves |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9972-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9974-5 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL100727 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9972-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-9974-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100727 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1790603533278511104 |