Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3456859 2023-08-27T04:10:52+02:00 Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere Dobrynin, M. Duesterhus, A. Froehlich, K. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, P. Müller, W. Baehr, J. 2022-10-11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5661-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5663-5 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GL095063 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5661-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5663-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Geophysical Research Letters info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095063 2023-08-02T01:45:08Z Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Geophysical Research Letters 49 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dobrynin, M. Duesterhus, A. Froehlich, K. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, P. Müller, W. Baehr, J. |
spellingShingle |
Dobrynin, M. Duesterhus, A. Froehlich, K. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, P. Müller, W. Baehr, J. Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
author_facet |
Dobrynin, M. Duesterhus, A. Froehlich, K. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, P. Müller, W. Baehr, J. |
author_sort |
Dobrynin, M. |
title |
Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short |
Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full |
Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5661-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5663-5 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GL095063 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5661-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5663-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095063 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
20 |
_version_ |
1775353222240665600 |