Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century
The predicted Antarctic contribution to global-mean sea-level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers again...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3376364 2023-08-27T04:05:09+02:00 Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century Wernecke, A. Edwards, T. Holden, P. Edwards, N. Cornford, S. 2022-03-28 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B07-D http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B09-B eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GL096589 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B07-D http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B09-B info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Geophysical Research Letters info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096589 2023-08-02T01:45:08Z The predicted Antarctic contribution to global-mean sea-level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers against such instabilities. Here we analyze the Pine Island Glacier topography to derive a statistical model representation. Our model allows for inhomogeneous and spatially dependent uncertainties and avoids unnecessary smoothing from spatial averaging or interpolation. A set of topography realizations is generated representing our best estimate of the topographic uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations. The bedrock uncertainty alone creates a 5%-25% uncertainty in the predicted sea level rise contribution at year 2100, depending on friction law and climate forcing. Pine Island Glacier simulations on this new set are consistent with simulations on the BedMachine reference topography but diverge from Bedmap2 simulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) Geophysical Research Letters 49 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
The predicted Antarctic contribution to global-mean sea-level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers against such instabilities. Here we analyze the Pine Island Glacier topography to derive a statistical model representation. Our model allows for inhomogeneous and spatially dependent uncertainties and avoids unnecessary smoothing from spatial averaging or interpolation. A set of topography realizations is generated representing our best estimate of the topographic uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations. The bedrock uncertainty alone creates a 5%-25% uncertainty in the predicted sea level rise contribution at year 2100, depending on friction law and climate forcing. Pine Island Glacier simulations on this new set are consistent with simulations on the BedMachine reference topography but diverge from Bedmap2 simulations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wernecke, A. Edwards, T. Holden, P. Edwards, N. Cornford, S. |
spellingShingle |
Wernecke, A. Edwards, T. Holden, P. Edwards, N. Cornford, S. Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
author_facet |
Wernecke, A. Edwards, T. Holden, P. Edwards, N. Cornford, S. |
author_sort |
Wernecke, A. |
title |
Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
title_short |
Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
title_full |
Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier projections for this century |
title_sort |
quantifying the impact of bedrock topography uncertainty in pine island glacier projections for this century |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B07-D http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B09-B |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GL096589 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B07-D http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-3B09-B |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096589 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1775356311513333760 |