Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small. The po...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3369525 2023-08-27T04:07:01+02:00 Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. Garcia-Serrano, J. Gastineau, G. Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, D. Mori, M. Msadek, R. Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. 2022-02-07 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07D8-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07DB-8 eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/GA727862 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07D8-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07DB-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Nature Communications info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y 2023-08-02T01:44:53Z The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small. The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Nature Communications 13 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small. The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. Garcia-Serrano, J. Gastineau, G. Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, D. Mori, M. Msadek, R. Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
spellingShingle |
Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. Garcia-Serrano, J. Gastineau, G. Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, D. Mori, M. Msadek, R. Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
author_facet |
Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. Garcia-Serrano, J. Gastineau, G. Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, X. Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, E. Matei, D. Mori, M. Msadek, R. Ortega, P. Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
author_sort |
Smith, D. |
title |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future arctic sea ice loss |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07D8-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07DB-8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/GA727862 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07D8-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-07DB-8 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1775347728120807424 |