The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations
The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call t...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3320613 2023-08-27T04:10:41+02:00 The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations Petschel-Held, G. Schellnhuber, H. Bruckner, T. Toth, F. Hasselmann, K. 1999 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D4E-3 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D50-F eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1023/A:1005487123751 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D4E-3 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D50-F info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climatic Change info:eu-repo/semantics/article 1999 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005487123751 2023-08-02T00:41:45Z The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call tolerable windows, can be purely systemic in nature - like critical thresholds for the North Atlantic Deep Water formation - or of a normative type - like minimum standards for per-capita food production worldwide. Starting from this catalogue of knock-out criteria and using appropriate modeling techniques, those policy strategies which are compatible with all the constraints specified are sought to be identified. In addition to the discussion of the basic elements and the general theory of the TW approach, a modeling exercise is carried out, based on simple models and assumptions adopted from the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis shows that if the global mean temperature is restricted to 2 degrees C beyond the preindustrial level, the cumulative emissions of CO2 are asymptotically limited to about 1550 Gt C. Yet the temporal distribution of these emissions is also determined by the climate and socio-economic constraints: using, for example, a maximal tolerable rate of temperature change of 0.2 degrees C/ dec and a smoothly varying emissions profile, we obtain the maximal cumulative emissions, amounting to 370 Gt C in 2050 and 585 Gt C in 2100. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
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English |
description |
The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call tolerable windows, can be purely systemic in nature - like critical thresholds for the North Atlantic Deep Water formation - or of a normative type - like minimum standards for per-capita food production worldwide. Starting from this catalogue of knock-out criteria and using appropriate modeling techniques, those policy strategies which are compatible with all the constraints specified are sought to be identified. In addition to the discussion of the basic elements and the general theory of the TW approach, a modeling exercise is carried out, based on simple models and assumptions adopted from the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis shows that if the global mean temperature is restricted to 2 degrees C beyond the preindustrial level, the cumulative emissions of CO2 are asymptotically limited to about 1550 Gt C. Yet the temporal distribution of these emissions is also determined by the climate and socio-economic constraints: using, for example, a maximal tolerable rate of temperature change of 0.2 degrees C/ dec and a smoothly varying emissions profile, we obtain the maximal cumulative emissions, amounting to 370 Gt C in 2050 and 585 Gt C in 2100. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Petschel-Held, G. Schellnhuber, H. Bruckner, T. Toth, F. Hasselmann, K. |
spellingShingle |
Petschel-Held, G. Schellnhuber, H. Bruckner, T. Toth, F. Hasselmann, K. The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
author_facet |
Petschel-Held, G. Schellnhuber, H. Bruckner, T. Toth, F. Hasselmann, K. |
author_sort |
Petschel-Held, G. |
title |
The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
title_short |
The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
title_full |
The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
title_fullStr |
The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations |
title_sort |
tolerable windows approach: theoretical and methodological foundations |
publishDate |
1999 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D4E-3 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D50-F |
genre |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climatic Change |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1023/A:1005487123751 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D4E-3 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8D50-F |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005487123751 |
_version_ |
1775352926790746112 |