Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change requires limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, while the difficulty of reducing carbon emissions at the necessary rate increases the likelihood of temporarily overshooting this climate target. Using simulatio...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3248477 2023-08-27T04:07:55+02:00 Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios de Vrese, P. Brovkin, V. 2021-05-11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8336-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8338-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-9901-A eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8336-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8338-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-9901-A info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Nature Communications info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5 2023-08-02T01:45:08Z Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change requires limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, while the difficulty of reducing carbon emissions at the necessary rate increases the likelihood of temporarily overshooting this climate target. Using simulations with the land surface model JSBACH, we show that it takes high-latitude ecosystems and the state of permafrost-affected soils several centuries to adjust to the atmospheric conditions that arise at the 1.5 °C-target. Here, a temporary warming of the Arctic entails important legacy effects and we show that feedbacks between water-, energy- and carbon cycles allow for multiple steady-states in permafrost regions, which differ with respect to the physical state of the soil, the soil carbon concentrations and the terrestrial carbon uptake and -release. The steady-states depend on the soil organic matter content at the point of climate stabilization, which is significantly affected by an overshoot-induced soil carbon loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Nature Communications 12 1 |
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English |
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Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change requires limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, while the difficulty of reducing carbon emissions at the necessary rate increases the likelihood of temporarily overshooting this climate target. Using simulations with the land surface model JSBACH, we show that it takes high-latitude ecosystems and the state of permafrost-affected soils several centuries to adjust to the atmospheric conditions that arise at the 1.5 °C-target. Here, a temporary warming of the Arctic entails important legacy effects and we show that feedbacks between water-, energy- and carbon cycles allow for multiple steady-states in permafrost regions, which differ with respect to the physical state of the soil, the soil carbon concentrations and the terrestrial carbon uptake and -release. The steady-states depend on the soil organic matter content at the point of climate stabilization, which is significantly affected by an overshoot-induced soil carbon loss. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Vrese, P. Brovkin, V. |
spellingShingle |
de Vrese, P. Brovkin, V. Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
author_facet |
de Vrese, P. Brovkin, V. |
author_sort |
de Vrese, P. |
title |
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
title_short |
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
title_full |
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
title_sort |
timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8336-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8338-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-9901-A |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Nature Communications |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8336-7 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-8338-5 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-9901-A |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5 |
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Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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1775348631339008000 |