Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes
An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years a...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3165509 2023-08-27T04:10:44+02:00 Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes Borchert, L. Pohlmann, H. Baehr, J. Neddermann, N. Suarez-Gutierrez, L. Müller, W. 2019-12-16 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6960-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6BFE-6 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL085385 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6960-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6BFE-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Geophysical Research Letters info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085385 2023-08-02T00:10:35Z An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases at 50°N, a characteristic pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges: warm anomalies are found in the North Atlantic and cold anomalies emerge in the Gulf Stream region. This pattern originates from persistent upper-ocean heat content anomalies that originate from southward-propagating OHT anomalies in the North Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability of yearly initialized hindcasts is linked to this SST pattern: when ocean heat transport at 50°N is strong at the initialization of a hindcast, SST anomaly correlation coefficients in the northeast Atlantic at lead years 2–9 are significantly higher than when the ocean heat transport at 50°N is weak at initialization. Surface heat fluxes that mask the predictable low-frequency oceanic variability that influences SSTs in the northwest Atlantic after strong OHT phases, and in the northwest and northeast Atlantic after weak OHT phases at 50°N lead to zonally asymmetrically predictable SSTs 7–9 years ahead. This study shows that the interannual-to-decadal predictability of North Atlantic SSTs depends strongly on the strength of subpolar ocean heat transport at the start of a prediction, indicating that physical mechanisms need to be taken into account for actual temperature predictions. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Geophysical Research Letters 46 23 14042 14051 |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases at 50°N, a characteristic pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges: warm anomalies are found in the North Atlantic and cold anomalies emerge in the Gulf Stream region. This pattern originates from persistent upper-ocean heat content anomalies that originate from southward-propagating OHT anomalies in the North Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability of yearly initialized hindcasts is linked to this SST pattern: when ocean heat transport at 50°N is strong at the initialization of a hindcast, SST anomaly correlation coefficients in the northeast Atlantic at lead years 2–9 are significantly higher than when the ocean heat transport at 50°N is weak at initialization. Surface heat fluxes that mask the predictable low-frequency oceanic variability that influences SSTs in the northwest Atlantic after strong OHT phases, and in the northwest and northeast Atlantic after weak OHT phases at 50°N lead to zonally asymmetrically predictable SSTs 7–9 years ahead. This study shows that the interannual-to-decadal predictability of North Atlantic SSTs depends strongly on the strength of subpolar ocean heat transport at the start of a prediction, indicating that physical mechanisms need to be taken into account for actual temperature predictions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, L. Pohlmann, H. Baehr, J. Neddermann, N. Suarez-Gutierrez, L. Müller, W. |
spellingShingle |
Borchert, L. Pohlmann, H. Baehr, J. Neddermann, N. Suarez-Gutierrez, L. Müller, W. Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
author_facet |
Borchert, L. Pohlmann, H. Baehr, J. Neddermann, N. Suarez-Gutierrez, L. Müller, W. |
author_sort |
Borchert, L. |
title |
Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
title_short |
Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
title_full |
Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
title_fullStr |
Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
title_sort |
decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6960-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6BFE-6 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019GL085385 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6960-9 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-6BFE-6 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085385 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
14042 |
op_container_end_page |
14051 |
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1775353021515956224 |