Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pat...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3158720 2023-08-27T04:06:25+02:00 Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) Akperov, M. Rinke, A. Mokhov, I. Semenov, V. Parfenova, M. Matthes, H. Adakudlu, M. Boberg, F. Christensen, J. Dembitskaya, M. Dethloff, K. Fettweis, X. Gutjahr, O. Heinemann, G. Koenigk, T. Koldunov, N. Laprise, R. Mottram, R. Nikiéma, O. Sein, D. Sobolowski, S. Winger, K. Zhang, W. 2019-11 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-9B08-5 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-9B08-5 Global and Planetary Change info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005 2023-08-02T00:04:07Z Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Article in Journal/Newspaper Archipelago Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Barents Sea Canadian Archipelago Greenland Greenland Sea Nordic Seas Alaska Siberia Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Baffin Bay Barents Sea Greenland Global and Planetary Change 182 103005 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Akperov, M. Rinke, A. Mokhov, I. Semenov, V. Parfenova, M. Matthes, H. Adakudlu, M. Boberg, F. Christensen, J. Dembitskaya, M. Dethloff, K. Fettweis, X. Gutjahr, O. Heinemann, G. Koenigk, T. Koldunov, N. Laprise, R. Mottram, R. Nikiéma, O. Sein, D. Sobolowski, S. Winger, K. Zhang, W. |
spellingShingle |
Akperov, M. Rinke, A. Mokhov, I. Semenov, V. Parfenova, M. Matthes, H. Adakudlu, M. Boberg, F. Christensen, J. Dembitskaya, M. Dethloff, K. Fettweis, X. Gutjahr, O. Heinemann, G. Koenigk, T. Koldunov, N. Laprise, R. Mottram, R. Nikiéma, O. Sein, D. Sobolowski, S. Winger, K. Zhang, W. Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
author_facet |
Akperov, M. Rinke, A. Mokhov, I. Semenov, V. Parfenova, M. Matthes, H. Adakudlu, M. Boberg, F. Christensen, J. Dembitskaya, M. Dethloff, K. Fettweis, X. Gutjahr, O. Heinemann, G. Koenigk, T. Koldunov, N. Laprise, R. Mottram, R. Nikiéma, O. Sein, D. Sobolowski, S. Winger, K. Zhang, W. |
author_sort |
Akperov, M. |
title |
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
title_short |
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
title_full |
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
title_fullStr |
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX) |
title_sort |
future projections of cyclone activity in the arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (arctic-cordex) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-9B08-5 |
geographic |
Arctic Baffin Bay Barents Sea Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Baffin Bay Barents Sea Greenland |
genre |
Archipelago Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Barents Sea Canadian Archipelago Greenland Greenland Sea Nordic Seas Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Archipelago Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Barents Sea Canadian Archipelago Greenland Greenland Sea Nordic Seas Alaska Siberia |
op_source |
Global and Planetary Change |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-9B08-5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005 |
container_title |
Global and Planetary Change |
container_volume |
182 |
container_start_page |
103005 |
_version_ |
1775347335801339904 |