Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations for...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3049786 2023-08-27T04:11:01+02:00 Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe Vautard, R. Christidis, N. Ciavarella, A. Alvarez‑Castro, C. Bellprat, O. Christiansen, B. Colfescu, I. Cowan, T. Doblas‑Reyes, F. Eden, J. Hauser, M. Hegerl, G. Hempelmann, N. Klehmet, K. Lott, F. Nangini, C. Orth, R. Radanovics, S. Seneviratne, S. van Oldenborgh, G. Stott, P. Tett, S. Wilcox, L. Yiou, P. 2019 application/pdf application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-72FC-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FF9-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FFA-3 unknown info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-72FC-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FF9-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FFA-3 Climate Dynamics info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 2023-08-02T01:03:17Z A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Climate Dynamics 52 1-2 1187 1210 |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vautard, R. Christidis, N. Ciavarella, A. Alvarez‑Castro, C. Bellprat, O. Christiansen, B. Colfescu, I. Cowan, T. Doblas‑Reyes, F. Eden, J. Hauser, M. Hegerl, G. Hempelmann, N. Klehmet, K. Lott, F. Nangini, C. Orth, R. Radanovics, S. Seneviratne, S. van Oldenborgh, G. Stott, P. Tett, S. Wilcox, L. Yiou, P. |
spellingShingle |
Vautard, R. Christidis, N. Ciavarella, A. Alvarez‑Castro, C. Bellprat, O. Christiansen, B. Colfescu, I. Cowan, T. Doblas‑Reyes, F. Eden, J. Hauser, M. Hegerl, G. Hempelmann, N. Klehmet, K. Lott, F. Nangini, C. Orth, R. Radanovics, S. Seneviratne, S. van Oldenborgh, G. Stott, P. Tett, S. Wilcox, L. Yiou, P. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
author_facet |
Vautard, R. Christidis, N. Ciavarella, A. Alvarez‑Castro, C. Bellprat, O. Christiansen, B. Colfescu, I. Cowan, T. Doblas‑Reyes, F. Eden, J. Hauser, M. Hegerl, G. Hempelmann, N. Klehmet, K. Lott, F. Nangini, C. Orth, R. Radanovics, S. Seneviratne, S. van Oldenborgh, G. Stott, P. Tett, S. Wilcox, L. Yiou, P. |
author_sort |
Vautard, R. |
title |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_short |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_full |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_sort |
evaluation of the hadgem3-a simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in europe |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-72FC-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FF9-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FFA-3 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-72FC-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FF9-4 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-8FFA-3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
52 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
1187 |
op_container_end_page |
1210 |
_version_ |
1775353464450187264 |