How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an incre...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_2526943 2023-08-20T04:04:17+02:00 How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere Badin, G. Domeisen, D. Koszalka, I. 2018-01-18 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-3262-9 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-3262-9 Journal of Climate info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1 2023-08-01T23:15:10Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Journal of Climate 31 3 997 1014 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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language |
English |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Badin, G. Domeisen, D. Koszalka, I. |
spellingShingle |
Badin, G. Domeisen, D. Koszalka, I. How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
author_facet |
Badin, G. Domeisen, D. Koszalka, I. |
author_sort |
Badin, G. |
title |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
how predictable are the arctic and north atlantic oscillations? exploring the variability and predictability of the northern hemisphere |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-3262-9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of Climate |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-3262-9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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31 |
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3 |
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997 |
op_container_end_page |
1014 |
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1774714674885951488 |