Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability
We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemb...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_2526291 2023-08-27T04:10:52+02:00 Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability Li, H. Ilyina, T. 2018-01-28 application/pdf application/zip http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-310D-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-B0EA-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-5239-1 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL075370 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-310D-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-B0EA-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-5239-1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Geophysical Research Letters info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 2023-08-02T01:39:15Z We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Southern Ocean Pacific Geophysical Research Letters 45 2 916 925 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50–65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, H. Ilyina, T. |
spellingShingle |
Li, H. Ilyina, T. Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
author_facet |
Li, H. Ilyina, T. |
author_sort |
Li, H. |
title |
Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
title_short |
Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
title_full |
Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
title_fullStr |
Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
title_sort |
current and future decadal trends in the oceanic carbon uptake are dominated by internal variability |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-310D-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-B0EA-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-5239-1 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL075370 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-310D-B http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0000-B0EA-1 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-5239-1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075370 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
916 |
op_container_end_page |
925 |
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1775353243400929280 |