Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming
The role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) driven by prescribed...
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_2472920 2023-08-27T04:07:09+02:00 Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming Karpechko, A. Manzini, E. 2017-09 application/pdf application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7A-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7C-E http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7F-8 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7A-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7C-E http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7F-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal of Climate info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1 2023-08-02T01:38:35Z The role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however, until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. This study focuses on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analyzed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wavenumber 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. Further, it is shown that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere are related to the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and midlatitudes near the tropopause. Evidence presented in this paper corroborate climate model simulations of future stratospheric changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Journal of Climate 30 17 7071 7086 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
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ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
The role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however, until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. This study focuses on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analyzed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wavenumber 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. Further, it is shown that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere are related to the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and midlatitudes near the tropopause. Evidence presented in this paper corroborate climate model simulations of future stratospheric changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karpechko, A. Manzini, E. |
spellingShingle |
Karpechko, A. Manzini, E. Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
author_facet |
Karpechko, A. Manzini, E. |
author_sort |
Karpechko, A. |
title |
Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
title_short |
Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
title_full |
Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
title_fullStr |
Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
title_sort |
arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7A-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7C-E http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7F-8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
Journal of Climate |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7A-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7C-E http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-CF7F-8 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
17 |
container_start_page |
7071 |
op_container_end_page |
7086 |
_version_ |
1775347923875266560 |