Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages
Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observati...
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Language: | English |
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_2272678 2023-08-20T04:04:41+02:00 Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages Toohey, M. Krüger, K. Sigl, M. Stordal, F. Svensen, H. 2016-04-13 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4853-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4855-C eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4853-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4855-C info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climatic Change info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7 2023-08-01T23:00:15Z Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century. © 2016 The Author(s) Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic ice core Sea ice Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Arctic Climatic Change 136 3-4 401 412 |
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Open Polar |
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Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century. © 2016 The Author(s) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Toohey, M. Krüger, K. Sigl, M. Stordal, F. Svensen, H. |
spellingShingle |
Toohey, M. Krüger, K. Sigl, M. Stordal, F. Svensen, H. Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
author_facet |
Toohey, M. Krüger, K. Sigl, M. Stordal, F. Svensen, H. |
author_sort |
Toohey, M. |
title |
Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
title_short |
Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
title_full |
Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
title_fullStr |
Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages |
title_sort |
climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the middle ages |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4853-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4855-C |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic ice core Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic ice core Sea ice |
op_source |
Climatic Change |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4853-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002A-4855-C |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
136 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
401 |
op_container_end_page |
412 |
_version_ |
1774715059405062144 |