Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0024-6319-A |
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_2081133 2024-09-15T17:43:00+00:00 Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes Slangen, A. Carson, M. Katsman, C. van de Wal, R. Köhl, A. Vermeersen, L. Stammer, D. 2014 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0024-6319-A eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0024-6319-A Climatic Change info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2014 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9 2024-07-31T09:31:25Z We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Climatic Change 124 1-2 317 332 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slangen, A. Carson, M. Katsman, C. van de Wal, R. Köhl, A. Vermeersen, L. Stammer, D. |
spellingShingle |
Slangen, A. Carson, M. Katsman, C. van de Wal, R. Köhl, A. Vermeersen, L. Stammer, D. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
author_facet |
Slangen, A. Carson, M. Katsman, C. van de Wal, R. Köhl, A. Vermeersen, L. Stammer, D. |
author_sort |
Slangen, A. |
title |
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
title_short |
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
title_full |
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
title_fullStr |
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
title_sort |
projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0024-6319-A |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ocean Climate change North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climatic Change |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9 http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0024-6319-A |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
124 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
317 |
op_container_end_page |
332 |
_version_ |
1810489822262853632 |