Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model
Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) is a morbillivirus that has become a novel target for disease surveillance and control efforts in the North Sea region after large-scale epizootics in 1988 and 2002 led to the mass mortality of common, or harbor, seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus...
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ftprincetonuniv:oai:dataspace.princeton.edu:88435/dsp015138jh82b 2023-05-15T17:58:56+02:00 Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model Dietrich, Madeleine Dobson, Andrew 2020-05-04 application/pdf http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp015138jh82b en eng http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp015138jh82b Princeton University Senior Theses 2020 ftprincetonuniv 2022-04-10T21:02:59Z Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) is a morbillivirus that has become a novel target for disease surveillance and control efforts in the North Sea region after large-scale epizootics in 1988 and 2002 led to the mass mortality of common, or harbor, seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). PDV, as with other marine epizootics, poses a unique modeling challenge: data is reliant on volunteer reporting of strandings, which may not be representative of the true burden of disease, and thus key parameters are difficult to elucidate. Additionally, recent serological research has indicated that, not only can the two relevant species cross-infect, but that the burden of disease differs between them: grey seals typically exist only as carriers of the disease and do not become symptomatic. First, this thesis aims to articulate a two-host SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model to ascertain key disease parameters, including the reproduction rate and the true burden of disease, and attempt to forecast possible future course(s) of the disease based on existing population data (all data were sourced from the Sea Mammal Research Institute in St. Andrews, Scotland). Second, given the difficult nature of assigned time of death for individual seals during mass mortality events (relevant for understanding the temporal course of the disease), this thesis provides a framework and initial data for an estimate of postmortem interval assessments based on protein degradation. Bachelor Thesis Phoca vitulina DataSpace at Princeton University |
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Open Polar |
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DataSpace at Princeton University |
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ftprincetonuniv |
language |
English |
description |
Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) is a morbillivirus that has become a novel target for disease surveillance and control efforts in the North Sea region after large-scale epizootics in 1988 and 2002 led to the mass mortality of common, or harbor, seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). PDV, as with other marine epizootics, poses a unique modeling challenge: data is reliant on volunteer reporting of strandings, which may not be representative of the true burden of disease, and thus key parameters are difficult to elucidate. Additionally, recent serological research has indicated that, not only can the two relevant species cross-infect, but that the burden of disease differs between them: grey seals typically exist only as carriers of the disease and do not become symptomatic. First, this thesis aims to articulate a two-host SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model to ascertain key disease parameters, including the reproduction rate and the true burden of disease, and attempt to forecast possible future course(s) of the disease based on existing population data (all data were sourced from the Sea Mammal Research Institute in St. Andrews, Scotland). Second, given the difficult nature of assigned time of death for individual seals during mass mortality events (relevant for understanding the temporal course of the disease), this thesis provides a framework and initial data for an estimate of postmortem interval assessments based on protein degradation. |
author2 |
Dobson, Andrew |
format |
Bachelor Thesis |
author |
Dietrich, Madeleine |
spellingShingle |
Dietrich, Madeleine Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
author_facet |
Dietrich, Madeleine |
author_sort |
Dietrich, Madeleine |
title |
Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
title_short |
Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
title_full |
Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Phocine Distemper Virus Dynamics in the United Kingdom: A Two-Host Application of the SEIR Model |
title_sort |
modeling phocine distemper virus dynamics in the united kingdom: a two-host application of the seir model |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp015138jh82b |
genre |
Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
Phoca vitulina |
op_relation |
http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp015138jh82b |
_version_ |
1766167667053428736 |