Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions
Given growing concerns about climate tipping points and their risks, it is important to investigate the capability of identifying robust precursor signals for the associated transitions. In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a stochastically forced s...
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ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_29754 2024-05-12T08:04:38+00:00 Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions Mitsui, T. Boers, N. 2024-03-22 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754_1/component/file_29755/Mitsui_2024_cp-20-683-2024.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754_1/component/file_29755/Mitsui_2024_cp-20-683-2024.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Climate of the Past info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2024 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024 2024-04-17T14:28:12Z Given growing concerns about climate tipping points and their risks, it is important to investigate the capability of identifying robust precursor signals for the associated transitions. In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a stochastically forced system approaching a critical or bifurcation-induced transition, making them theoretically suitable indicators to warn of such transitions. Paleoclimate records provide useful test beds if such a warning of a forthcoming transition could work in practice. The Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are characterized by millennial-scale abrupt climate changes during the glacial period, manifesting most clearly as abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region. Some previous studies have found such statistical precursor signals for the DO warming transitions. On the other hand, statistical precursor signals for the abrupt DO cooling transitions have not been identified. Analyzing Greenland ice core records, we find robust and statistically significant precursor signals of DO cooling transitions in most of the interstadials longer than roughly 1500 years but not in the shorter interstadials. The origin of the statistical precursor signals is mainly related to so-called rebound events, humps in the temperature observed at the end of interstadial, some decades to centuries prior to the actual transition. We discuss several dynamical mechanisms that give rise to such rebound events and statistical precursor signals. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core ice core North Atlantic Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Greenland Humps ENVELOPE(-57.450,-57.450,-63.983,-63.983) Climate of the Past 20 3 683 699 |
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Open Polar |
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Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
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ftpotsdamik |
language |
English |
description |
Given growing concerns about climate tipping points and their risks, it is important to investigate the capability of identifying robust precursor signals for the associated transitions. In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a stochastically forced system approaching a critical or bifurcation-induced transition, making them theoretically suitable indicators to warn of such transitions. Paleoclimate records provide useful test beds if such a warning of a forthcoming transition could work in practice. The Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are characterized by millennial-scale abrupt climate changes during the glacial period, manifesting most clearly as abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region. Some previous studies have found such statistical precursor signals for the DO warming transitions. On the other hand, statistical precursor signals for the abrupt DO cooling transitions have not been identified. Analyzing Greenland ice core records, we find robust and statistically significant precursor signals of DO cooling transitions in most of the interstadials longer than roughly 1500 years but not in the shorter interstadials. The origin of the statistical precursor signals is mainly related to so-called rebound events, humps in the temperature observed at the end of interstadial, some decades to centuries prior to the actual transition. We discuss several dynamical mechanisms that give rise to such rebound events and statistical precursor signals. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mitsui, T. Boers, N. |
spellingShingle |
Mitsui, T. Boers, N. Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
author_facet |
Mitsui, T. Boers, N. |
author_sort |
Mitsui, T. |
title |
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
title_short |
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
title_full |
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
title_fullStr |
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions |
title_sort |
statistical precursor signals for dansgaard–oeschger cooling transitions |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754_1/component/file_29755/Mitsui_2024_cp-20-683-2024.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.450,-57.450,-63.983,-63.983) |
geographic |
Greenland Humps |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Humps |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core ice core North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core ice core North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29754_1/component/file_29755/Mitsui_2024_cp-20-683-2024.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
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20 |
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3 |
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683 |
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699 |
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