Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability
As a significant component of natural climatic variability, teleconnection patterns play an important role in determining regional climate variability and extremes. The mechanisms linking the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean climate variability have not been rigorously demonstrated so far. Tradi...
Published in: | 16th International Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics—COMECAP 2023 |
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ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_29191 2024-01-21T10:08:25+01:00 Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability Hatzaki, M. Di Capua, G. Chaniotis, J. Patlakas, P. Donner, R. Flocas, H. 2023-09-04 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191_1/component/file_29198/29191oa.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/environsciproc2023026155 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191_1/component/file_29198/29191oa.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Environmental Sciences Proceedings info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2023026155 2023-12-25T00:45:00Z As a significant component of natural climatic variability, teleconnection patterns play an important role in determining regional climate variability and extremes. The mechanisms linking the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean climate variability have not been rigorously demonstrated so far. Traditional statistical analysis of climate variability has vastly exploited concepts based on linear correlations and composites, nonetheless, with several weaknesses. The recently developed powerful concept of causal effect network (CEN) allows the detection of the causal relationships among a set of univariate time series (actors) by removing the confounding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links, and common drivers, retaining eventually only the actual causal links. In this study, we investigate the causal interaction mechanisms linking large-scale atmospheric variability with the Mediterranean winter climate by applying for the first time the CEN analysis. Results reveal causal links among the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), and Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection patterns, while the NAO acts as a causal driver for Mediterranean winter temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) 16th International Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics—COMECAP 2023 155 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
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ftpotsdamik |
language |
English |
description |
As a significant component of natural climatic variability, teleconnection patterns play an important role in determining regional climate variability and extremes. The mechanisms linking the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean climate variability have not been rigorously demonstrated so far. Traditional statistical analysis of climate variability has vastly exploited concepts based on linear correlations and composites, nonetheless, with several weaknesses. The recently developed powerful concept of causal effect network (CEN) allows the detection of the causal relationships among a set of univariate time series (actors) by removing the confounding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links, and common drivers, retaining eventually only the actual causal links. In this study, we investigate the causal interaction mechanisms linking large-scale atmospheric variability with the Mediterranean winter climate by applying for the first time the CEN analysis. Results reveal causal links among the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), and Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection patterns, while the NAO acts as a causal driver for Mediterranean winter temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hatzaki, M. Di Capua, G. Chaniotis, J. Patlakas, P. Donner, R. Flocas, H. |
spellingShingle |
Hatzaki, M. Di Capua, G. Chaniotis, J. Patlakas, P. Donner, R. Flocas, H. Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
author_facet |
Hatzaki, M. Di Capua, G. Chaniotis, J. Patlakas, P. Donner, R. Flocas, H. |
author_sort |
Hatzaki, M. |
title |
Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
title_short |
Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
title_full |
Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
title_fullStr |
Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causal Drivers of Mediterranean Winter Climate Variability |
title_sort |
causal drivers of mediterranean winter climate variability |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191_1/component/file_29198/29191oa.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Sciences Proceedings |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/environsciproc2023026155 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29191_1/component/file_29198/29191oa.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2023026155 |
container_title |
16th International Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics—COMECAP 2023 |
container_start_page |
155 |
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1788699122163777536 |