Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica
Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4/component/file_28998/28235oa.pdf |
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ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_28235 2023-12-24T10:11:30+01:00 Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica Johnson, A. Aschwanden, A. Albrecht, T. Hock, R. 2023-10-01 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4/component/file_28998/28235oa.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2023.10 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4/component/file_28998/28235oa.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.10 2023-11-27T00:45:03Z Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Journal of Glaciology 1 11 |
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Open Polar |
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Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
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ftpotsdamik |
language |
English |
description |
Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Johnson, A. Aschwanden, A. Albrecht, T. Hock, R. |
spellingShingle |
Johnson, A. Aschwanden, A. Albrecht, T. Hock, R. Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
author_facet |
Johnson, A. Aschwanden, A. Albrecht, T. Hock, R. |
author_sort |
Johnson, A. |
title |
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
title_short |
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
title_full |
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
title_sort |
range of 21st century ice mass changes in the filchner-ronne region of antarctica |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4/component/file_28998/28235oa.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2023.10 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28235_4/component/file_28998/28235oa.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.10 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
11 |
_version_ |
1786166099863142400 |