Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial tran...
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Online Access: | https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912_1/component/file_28048/27912oa.pdf |
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ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_27912 2023-10-29T02:35:54+01:00 Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. Riechers, K. Rypdal, M. Boers, N. 2022-06-20 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912_1/component/file_28048/27912oa.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912_1/component/file_28048/27912oa.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Climate of the Past info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 2023-09-30T18:00:22Z Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Climate of the Past 18 6 1275 1294 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
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ftpotsdamik |
language |
English |
description |
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. Riechers, K. Rypdal, M. Boers, N. |
spellingShingle |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. Riechers, K. Rypdal, M. Boers, N. Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
author_facet |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. Riechers, K. Rypdal, M. Boers, N. |
author_sort |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. |
title |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_short |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_fullStr |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_sort |
comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of greenland warmings in the greenland ice core records |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912_1/component/file_28048/27912oa.pdf |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
op_source |
Climate of the Past |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27912_1/component/file_28048/27912oa.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1275 |
op_container_end_page |
1294 |
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1781059388453158912 |