Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a potentially unstable component of the Earth system and may exhibit a critical transition under ongoing global warming. Mass reductions of the GrIS have substantial impacts on global sea level and the speed of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, due to...

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Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Main Authors: Boers, N., Rypdal, M.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684_1/component/file_25690/25684.pdf
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spelling ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_25684 2023-10-29T02:36:41+01:00 Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point Boers, N. Rypdal, M. 2021-06-12 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684_1/component/file_25690/25684.pdf unknown info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2024192118 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684_1/component/file_25690/25684.pdf Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118 2023-09-30T18:00:19Z The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a potentially unstable component of the Earth system and may exhibit a critical transition under ongoing global warming. Mass reductions of the GrIS have substantial impacts on global sea level and the speed of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, due to the additional freshwater caused by increased meltwater runoff into the northern Atlantic. The stability of the GrIS depends crucially on the positive melt-elevation feedback (MEF), by which melt rates increase as the overall ice sheet height decreases under rising temperatures. Melting rates across Greenland have accelerated nonlinearly in recent decades, and models predict a critical temperature threshold beyond which the current ice sheet state is not maintainable. Here, we investigate long-term melt rate and ice sheet height reconstructions from the central-western GrIS in combination with model simulations to quantify the stability of this part of the GrIS. We reveal significant early-warning signals (EWS) indicating that the central-western GrIS is close to a critical transition. By relating the statistical EWS to underlying physical processes, our results suggest that the MEF plays a dominant role in the observed, ongoing destabilization of the central-western GrIS. Our results suggest substantial further GrIS mass loss in the near future and call for urgent, observation-constrained stability assessments of other parts of the GrIS. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 21
institution Open Polar
collection Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
op_collection_id ftpotsdamik
language unknown
description The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a potentially unstable component of the Earth system and may exhibit a critical transition under ongoing global warming. Mass reductions of the GrIS have substantial impacts on global sea level and the speed of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, due to the additional freshwater caused by increased meltwater runoff into the northern Atlantic. The stability of the GrIS depends crucially on the positive melt-elevation feedback (MEF), by which melt rates increase as the overall ice sheet height decreases under rising temperatures. Melting rates across Greenland have accelerated nonlinearly in recent decades, and models predict a critical temperature threshold beyond which the current ice sheet state is not maintainable. Here, we investigate long-term melt rate and ice sheet height reconstructions from the central-western GrIS in combination with model simulations to quantify the stability of this part of the GrIS. We reveal significant early-warning signals (EWS) indicating that the central-western GrIS is close to a critical transition. By relating the statistical EWS to underlying physical processes, our results suggest that the MEF plays a dominant role in the observed, ongoing destabilization of the central-western GrIS. Our results suggest substantial further GrIS mass loss in the near future and call for urgent, observation-constrained stability assessments of other parts of the GrIS.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Boers, N.
Rypdal, M.
spellingShingle Boers, N.
Rypdal, M.
Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
author_facet Boers, N.
Rypdal, M.
author_sort Boers, N.
title Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
title_short Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
title_full Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
title_fullStr Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
title_full_unstemmed Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
title_sort critical slowing down suggests that the western greenland ice sheet is close to a tipping point
publishDate 2021
url https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684_1/component/file_25690/25684.pdf
genre Greenland
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Greenland
Ice Sheet
op_source Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
op_relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2024192118
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25684_1/component/file_25690/25684.pdf
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118
container_title Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
container_volume 118
container_issue 21
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