On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Feulner, G.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: North Atlantic; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23600; https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23600_3/component/file_23601/8772oa.pdf

According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it.