Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerou...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Beckmann, J., Perrette, M., Beyer, S., Calov, R., Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491_1/component/file_22492/8116oa.pdf
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spelling ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_22491 2023-10-29T02:36:29+01:00 Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model Beckmann, J. Perrette, M. Beyer, S. Calov, R. Willeit, M. Ganopolski, A. 2019 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491_1/component/file_22492/8116oa.pdf unknown info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491_1/component/file_22492/8116oa.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019 2023-09-30T17:59:27Z In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) The Cryosphere 13 9 2281 2301
institution Open Polar
collection Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
op_collection_id ftpotsdamik
language unknown
description In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Beckmann, J.
Perrette, M.
Beyer, S.
Calov, R.
Willeit, M.
Ganopolski, A.
spellingShingle Beckmann, J.
Perrette, M.
Beyer, S.
Calov, R.
Willeit, M.
Ganopolski, A.
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
author_facet Beckmann, J.
Perrette, M.
Beyer, S.
Calov, R.
Willeit, M.
Ganopolski, A.
author_sort Beckmann, J.
title Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_short Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_full Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_fullStr Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_sort modeling the response of greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
publishDate 2019
url https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491_1/component/file_22492/8116oa.pdf
genre glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
genre_facet glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere
op_relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22491_1/component/file_22492/8116oa.pdf
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 13
container_issue 9
container_start_page 2281
op_container_end_page 2301
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