Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we qu...
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ftpotsdamik:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_22400 2023-10-29T02:31:49+01:00 Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C. 2018 application/pdf https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400_1/component/file_22401/8063oa.pdf unknown info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400_1/component/file_22401/8063oa.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Nature Communications info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftpotsdamik https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 2023-09-30T18:00:02Z Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Nature Communications 9 1 |
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Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
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ftpotsdamik |
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description |
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C. |
spellingShingle |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
author_facet |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C. |
author_sort |
Mengel, M. |
title |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_short |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_fullStr |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full_unstemmed |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_sort |
committed sea-level rise under the paris agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400_1/component/file_22401/8063oa.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Communications |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400 https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400_1/component/file_22401/8063oa.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1781052633834848256 |