Radiocarbon Test for Demographic Events in Written and Oral History

• Main Authors: Edinborough, Kevan, Porčić, Marko, Martindale, Andrew, Brown, Thomas J., Supernant, Kisha, Ames, Kenneth M.
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: PDXScholar 2017
• Subjects: Anthropology; Archaeological Anthropology; British Columbia; Canada; Pacific; Prince Rupert; Prince Rupert Harbour; Rupert; First Nations; Tsimshian; Tsimshian*
• Online Access: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/anth_fac/129; https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1129&context=anth_fac

We extend an established simulation-based method to test for significant short-duration (1–2 centuries) demographic events known from one documented historical and one oral historical context. Case study 1 extrapolates population data from the Western historical tradition using historically derived demographic data from the catastrophic European Black Death/bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis). We find a corresponding statistically significant drop in absolute population using an extended version of a previously published simulation method. Case study 2 uses this refined simulation method to test for a settlement gap identified in oral historical records of descendant Tsimshian First Nations communities from the Prince Rupert Harbour region of the Pacific Northwest region of British Columbia, Canada. Using a regional database of n = 523 radiocarbon dates, we find a significant drop in relative population using the extended simulation-based method consistent with Tsimshian oral records. We conclude that our technical refinement extends the utility of radiocarbon simulation methods and can provide a rigorous test of demographic predictions derived from a range of historical sources.