Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast
This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found t...
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ftponangunivst:oai:oasis.postech.ac.kr:2014.oak/50876 2023-05-15T15:12:49+02:00 Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast Kim, Seon Tae Sohn, Soo-Jin Kug, Jong-Seong Kug, Jong-Seong 2017-09 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/50876 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 English eng SPRINGER CLIMATE DYNAMICS Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0930-7575 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/50876 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 28686 CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v.49, no.5-6, pp.1567 - 1581 000408718200005 2-s2.0-84992073892 ARCTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERNS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CLIMATE VARIABILITY ENSO PREDICTION MONSOON PREDICTABILITY REANALYSIS ENERGETICS ENSEMBLE Teleconnection EAWM Winter temperature prediction Article ART 2017 ftponangunivst https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 2022-10-20T20:30:43Z This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia. 1 1 scie scopus Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) Arctic Pacific Climate Dynamics 49 5-6 1567 1581 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) |
op_collection_id |
ftponangunivst |
language |
English |
topic |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERNS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CLIMATE VARIABILITY ENSO PREDICTION MONSOON PREDICTABILITY REANALYSIS ENERGETICS ENSEMBLE Teleconnection EAWM Winter temperature prediction |
spellingShingle |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERNS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CLIMATE VARIABILITY ENSO PREDICTION MONSOON PREDICTABILITY REANALYSIS ENERGETICS ENSEMBLE Teleconnection EAWM Winter temperature prediction Kim, Seon Tae Sohn, Soo-Jin Kug, Jong-Seong Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
topic_facet |
ARCTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERNS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CLIMATE VARIABILITY ENSO PREDICTION MONSOON PREDICTABILITY REANALYSIS ENERGETICS ENSEMBLE Teleconnection EAWM Winter temperature prediction |
description |
This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia. 1 1 scie scopus |
author2 |
Kug, Jong-Seong |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim, Seon Tae Sohn, Soo-Jin Kug, Jong-Seong |
author_facet |
Kim, Seon Tae Sohn, Soo-Jin Kug, Jong-Seong |
author_sort |
Kim, Seon Tae |
title |
Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
title_short |
Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
title_full |
Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
title_fullStr |
Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
title_sort |
winter temperatures over the korean peninsula and east asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast |
publisher |
SPRINGER |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/50876 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
CLIMATE DYNAMICS Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0930-7575 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/50876 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 28686 CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v.49, no.5-6, pp.1567 - 1581 000408718200005 2-s2.0-84992073892 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3402-2 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
1567 |
op_container_end_page |
1581 |
_version_ |
1766343455274958848 |