Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk
In 2015, the sea ice extent (SIE) over the Sea of Okhotsk (Okhotsk SIE) hit a record low since 1979 during February-March, the period when the sea ice extent generally reaches its annual maximum. To quantify the role of anthropogenic influences on the changes observed in Okhotsk SIE, this study empl...
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AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
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ftponangunivst:oai:oasis.postech.ac.kr:2014.oak/39085 2023-05-15T18:17:27+02:00 Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE Kim, Baek-Min Shiogama, Hideo Heo, Joonghyeok MIN, SEUNG KI PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE MIN, SEUNG KI 2017-06 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/39085 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 English eng AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0894-8755 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/39085 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 28624 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , v.30, no.12, pp.4693 - 4703 000402379600021 2-s2.0-85019987316 NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE CLIMATE-CHANGE WINTER Article ART 2017 ftponangunivst https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 2022-10-20T20:23:36Z In 2015, the sea ice extent (SIE) over the Sea of Okhotsk (Okhotsk SIE) hit a record low since 1979 during February-March, the period when the sea ice extent generally reaches its annual maximum. To quantify the role of anthropogenic influences on the changes observed in Okhotsk SIE, this study employed a fraction of attributable risk (FAR) analysis to compare the probability of occurrence of extreme Okhotsk SIE events and long-term SIE trends using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations performed with and without anthropogenic forcing. It was found that because of anthropogenic influence, both the probability of extreme low Okhotsk SIEs that exceed the 2015 event and the observed long-term trends during 1979-2015 have increased by more than 4 times (FAR = 0.76 to 1). In addition, it is suggested that a strong negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) during midwinter (January-February) 2015 also contributed to the 2015 extreme SIE event. An analysis based on multiple linear regression was conducted to quantify relative contributions of the external forcing (anthropogenic plus natural) and the NPO (internal variability) to the observed SIE changes. About 56.0% and 24.7% of the 2015 SIE anomaly was estimated to be attributable to the external forcing and the strong negative NPO influence, respectively. The external forcing was also found to explain about 86.1% of the observed long-term SIE trend. Further, projections from the CMIP5 models indicate that a sea ice-free condition may occur in the Sea of Okhotsk by the late twenty-first century in some models. 키워드 1 1 2 scie scopus Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) Midwinter ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) Okhotsk Pacific Journal of Climate 30 12 4693 4703 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) |
op_collection_id |
ftponangunivst |
language |
English |
topic |
NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE CLIMATE-CHANGE WINTER |
spellingShingle |
NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE CLIMATE-CHANGE WINTER PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE Kim, Baek-Min Shiogama, Hideo Heo, Joonghyeok MIN, SEUNG KI Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
topic_facet |
NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE CLIMATE-CHANGE WINTER |
description |
In 2015, the sea ice extent (SIE) over the Sea of Okhotsk (Okhotsk SIE) hit a record low since 1979 during February-March, the period when the sea ice extent generally reaches its annual maximum. To quantify the role of anthropogenic influences on the changes observed in Okhotsk SIE, this study employed a fraction of attributable risk (FAR) analysis to compare the probability of occurrence of extreme Okhotsk SIE events and long-term SIE trends using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations performed with and without anthropogenic forcing. It was found that because of anthropogenic influence, both the probability of extreme low Okhotsk SIEs that exceed the 2015 event and the observed long-term trends during 1979-2015 have increased by more than 4 times (FAR = 0.76 to 1). In addition, it is suggested that a strong negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) during midwinter (January-February) 2015 also contributed to the 2015 extreme SIE event. An analysis based on multiple linear regression was conducted to quantify relative contributions of the external forcing (anthropogenic plus natural) and the NPO (internal variability) to the observed SIE changes. About 56.0% and 24.7% of the 2015 SIE anomaly was estimated to be attributable to the external forcing and the strong negative NPO influence, respectively. The external forcing was also found to explain about 86.1% of the observed long-term SIE trend. Further, projections from the CMIP5 models indicate that a sea ice-free condition may occur in the Sea of Okhotsk by the late twenty-first century in some models. 키워드 1 1 2 scie scopus |
author2 |
PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE MIN, SEUNG KI |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE Kim, Baek-Min Shiogama, Hideo Heo, Joonghyeok MIN, SEUNG KI |
author_facet |
PAIK, SEUNGMOK KIM, YEON HEE Kim, Baek-Min Shiogama, Hideo Heo, Joonghyeok MIN, SEUNG KI |
author_sort |
PAIK, SEUNGMOK |
title |
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
title_short |
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
title_full |
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
title_fullStr |
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk |
title_sort |
attributing causes of 2015 record minimum sea-ice extent in the sea of okhotsk |
publisher |
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/39085 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) |
geographic |
Midwinter Okhotsk Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Midwinter Okhotsk Pacific |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0894-8755 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/39085 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 28624 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , v.30, no.12, pp.4693 - 4703 000402379600021 2-s2.0-85019987316 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0587.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4693 |
op_container_end_page |
4703 |
_version_ |
1766191683641278464 |