Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models
Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June-August) have been identified: the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importan...
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American Meteorological Society
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Online Access: | https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/13088 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 |
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ftponangunivst:oai:oasis.postech.ac.kr:2014.oak/13088 2023-05-15T17:36:11+02:00 Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models Lee, JY Wang, B Seo, KH Kug, JS Choi, YS Kosaka, Y Ha, KJ 환경공학부 10112320 Kug, JS 2014-05 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/13088 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 English eng American Meteorological Society JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 27 10 3643 3664 SCI급, SCOPUS 등재논문 SCI Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0894-8755 2015-OAK-0000029984 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/13088 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 16187 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, v.27, no.10, pp.3643 - 3664 000335541100011 2-s2.0-84900426014 BY_NC_ND http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/kr CC-BY-NC-ND onsoons Climate change ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON EL-NINO INTERDECADAL CHANGES CLIMATE PACIFIC ENSO OSCILLATION VARIABILITY IMPACT REGION Article ART 2014 ftponangunivst https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 2022-10-20T20:08:32Z Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June-August) have been identified: the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipated in the latter half of twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario: 1) significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific-North America and North Atlantic-Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship. O 1 1 29 26 scie scopus Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) Indian Pacific Journal of Climate 27 10 3643 3664 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH): Open Access System for Information Sharing (OASIS) |
op_collection_id |
ftponangunivst |
language |
English |
topic |
onsoons Climate change ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON EL-NINO INTERDECADAL CHANGES CLIMATE PACIFIC ENSO OSCILLATION VARIABILITY IMPACT REGION |
spellingShingle |
onsoons Climate change ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON EL-NINO INTERDECADAL CHANGES CLIMATE PACIFIC ENSO OSCILLATION VARIABILITY IMPACT REGION Lee, JY Wang, B Seo, KH Kug, JS Choi, YS Kosaka, Y Ha, KJ Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
topic_facet |
onsoons Climate change ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON EL-NINO INTERDECADAL CHANGES CLIMATE PACIFIC ENSO OSCILLATION VARIABILITY IMPACT REGION |
description |
Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June-August) have been identified: the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipated in the latter half of twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario: 1) significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific-North America and North Atlantic-Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship. O 1 1 29 26 scie scopus |
author2 |
환경공학부 10112320 Kug, JS |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lee, JY Wang, B Seo, KH Kug, JS Choi, YS Kosaka, Y Ha, KJ |
author_facet |
Lee, JY Wang, B Seo, KH Kug, JS Choi, YS Kosaka, Y Ha, KJ |
author_sort |
Lee, JY |
title |
Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
title_short |
Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
title_full |
Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
title_fullStr |
Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models |
title_sort |
future change of northern hemisphere summer tropical-extratropical teleconnection in cmip5 models |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/13088 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 27 10 3643 3664 SCI급, SCOPUS 등재논문 SCI Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 0894-8755 2015-OAK-0000029984 https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/13088 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 16187 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, v.27, no.10, pp.3643 - 3664 000335541100011 2-s2.0-84900426014 |
op_rights |
BY_NC_ND http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/kr |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00261.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3643 |
op_container_end_page |
3664 |
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1766135577836519424 |