Inter-model differences in future summer onset over the northern high latitudes

• Main Authors: PARK, BOJOUNG, MIN, SEUNG KI, RYU, YOUNG HEE
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union 2022
• Subjects: Bering Sea; Canada; Northwest Russia
• Online Access: https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/115061

Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales. 1 1 N scie scopus