Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe
This paper proposes a method from Scan statistics for identifying flood-rich and flood-poor periods (i.e., anomalies) in flood discharge records. Exceedances of quantiles with 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods are used to identify periods with unusually many (or few) threshold exceedances with resp...
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American Geophysical Union
2020
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2862995 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026575 |
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ftpoltorinoiris:oai:iris.polito.it:11583/2862995 2024-04-14T08:16:01+00:00 Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe David Lun Svenja Fischer Alberto Viglione Günter Blöschl Lun, David Fischer, Svenja Viglione, Alberto Blöschl, Günter 2020 http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2862995 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026575 eng eng American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000556141400040 volume:56 issue:7 firstpage:e2019WR026575 numberofpages:22 journal:WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2862995 doi:10.1029/2019WR026575 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85088589464 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Flood change Flood frequency Scan statistics info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2020 ftpoltorinoiris https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026575 2024-03-21T16:36:00Z This paper proposes a method from Scan statistics for identifying flood-rich and flood-poor periods (i.e., anomalies) in flood discharge records. Exceedances of quantiles with 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods are used to identify periods with unusually many (or few) threshold exceedances with respect to the reference condition of independent and identically distributed random variables. For the case of flood-rich periods, multiple window lengths are used in the identification process. The method is applied to 2,201 annual flood peak series in Europe between 1960 and 2010. Results indicate evidence for the existence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods, as about 2 to 3 times more anomalies are detected than what would be expected by chance. The frequency of the anomalies tends to decrease with an increasing threshold return period which is consistent with previous studies, but this may be partly related to the method and the record length of about 50 years. In the northwest of Europe, the frequency of stations with flood-rich periods tends to increase over time and the frequency of stations with flood-poor periods tends to decrease. In the east and south of Europe, the opposite is the case. There appears to exist a turning point around 1970 when the frequencies of anomalies start to change most clearly. This turning point occurs at the same time as a turning point of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The method is also suitable for peak-over-threshold series and can be generalized to higher dimensions, such as space and space-time. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation PORTO@iris (Publications Open Repository TOrino - Politecnico di Torino) Water Resources Research 56 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PORTO@iris (Publications Open Repository TOrino - Politecnico di Torino) |
op_collection_id |
ftpoltorinoiris |
language |
English |
topic |
Flood change Flood frequency Scan statistics |
spellingShingle |
Flood change Flood frequency Scan statistics David Lun Svenja Fischer Alberto Viglione Günter Blöschl Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
topic_facet |
Flood change Flood frequency Scan statistics |
description |
This paper proposes a method from Scan statistics for identifying flood-rich and flood-poor periods (i.e., anomalies) in flood discharge records. Exceedances of quantiles with 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods are used to identify periods with unusually many (or few) threshold exceedances with respect to the reference condition of independent and identically distributed random variables. For the case of flood-rich periods, multiple window lengths are used in the identification process. The method is applied to 2,201 annual flood peak series in Europe between 1960 and 2010. Results indicate evidence for the existence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods, as about 2 to 3 times more anomalies are detected than what would be expected by chance. The frequency of the anomalies tends to decrease with an increasing threshold return period which is consistent with previous studies, but this may be partly related to the method and the record length of about 50 years. In the northwest of Europe, the frequency of stations with flood-rich periods tends to increase over time and the frequency of stations with flood-poor periods tends to decrease. In the east and south of Europe, the opposite is the case. There appears to exist a turning point around 1970 when the frequencies of anomalies start to change most clearly. This turning point occurs at the same time as a turning point of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The method is also suitable for peak-over-threshold series and can be generalized to higher dimensions, such as space and space-time. |
author2 |
Lun, David Fischer, Svenja Viglione, Alberto Blöschl, Günter |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David Lun Svenja Fischer Alberto Viglione Günter Blöschl |
author_facet |
David Lun Svenja Fischer Alberto Viglione Günter Blöschl |
author_sort |
David Lun |
title |
Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
title_short |
Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
title_full |
Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
title_fullStr |
Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting Flood‐Rich and Flood‐Poor Periods in Annual Peak Discharges Across Europe |
title_sort |
detecting flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods in annual peak discharges across europe |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2862995 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026575 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000556141400040 volume:56 issue:7 firstpage:e2019WR026575 numberofpages:22 journal:WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2862995 doi:10.1029/2019WR026575 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85088589464 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026575 |
container_title |
Water Resources Research |
container_volume |
56 |
container_issue |
7 |
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1796314545173561344 |