A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters
Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1053204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 |
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ftpolimilanoiris:oai:re.public.polimi.it:11311/1053204 2024-04-14T08:06:24+00:00 A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping 2017 http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1053204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000432767800014 volume:107 firstpage:145 lastpage:154 numberofpages:10 journal:SAFETY SCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1053204 doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85025479870 www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Accident scenario analysi Arctic water Frank copula Fuzzy-event tree analysi Ship accident Ship stuck in ice Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Safety Research Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftpolimilanoiris https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 2024-03-25T16:37:04Z Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe operation within the area, the potential risks of ship accidents, need to be systematically analyzed, assessed and managed along with the associated uncertainties. The treatment of epistemic uncertainty in the likelihoods of adverse events due to lack of knowledge and information should also be considered. This paper presents a Frank copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach to assess the risks of major ship accidents in Arctic waters, taking uncertainty into consideration. The quantitative approach includes four steps, namely, accident scenario modeling by an event tree model, probability and dependence analysis of the associated intermediate events, risk assessment with respect to the consequent outcome events. A major ship accident in Arctic waters - ships stuck in ice, is chosen as a case to interpret the modeling process of the approach proposed. Crews and ships owners can use such approach to defining risk control options that enable optimal risk mitigation. Maritime management may also benefit from better risk assessment. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic RE.PUBLIC@POLIMI - Research Publications at Politecnico di Milano Arctic Safety Science 107 145 154 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RE.PUBLIC@POLIMI - Research Publications at Politecnico di Milano |
op_collection_id |
ftpolimilanoiris |
language |
English |
topic |
Accident scenario analysi Arctic water Frank copula Fuzzy-event tree analysi Ship accident Ship stuck in ice Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Safety Research Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health |
spellingShingle |
Accident scenario analysi Arctic water Frank copula Fuzzy-event tree analysi Ship accident Ship stuck in ice Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Safety Research Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
topic_facet |
Accident scenario analysi Arctic water Frank copula Fuzzy-event tree analysi Ship accident Ship stuck in ice Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Safety Research Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health |
description |
Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe operation within the area, the potential risks of ship accidents, need to be systematically analyzed, assessed and managed along with the associated uncertainties. The treatment of epistemic uncertainty in the likelihoods of adverse events due to lack of knowledge and information should also be considered. This paper presents a Frank copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach to assess the risks of major ship accidents in Arctic waters, taking uncertainty into consideration. The quantitative approach includes four steps, namely, accident scenario modeling by an event tree model, probability and dependence analysis of the associated intermediate events, risk assessment with respect to the consequent outcome events. A major ship accident in Arctic waters - ships stuck in ice, is chosen as a case to interpret the modeling process of the approach proposed. Crews and ships owners can use such approach to defining risk control options that enable optimal risk mitigation. Maritime management may also benefit from better risk assessment. |
author2 |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping |
author_facet |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping |
author_sort |
Fu, Shanshan |
title |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_short |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_full |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_fullStr |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_full_unstemmed |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_sort |
quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in arctic waters |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1053204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000432767800014 volume:107 firstpage:145 lastpage:154 numberofpages:10 journal:SAFETY SCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1053204 doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85025479870 www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 |
container_title |
Safety Science |
container_volume |
107 |
container_start_page |
145 |
op_container_end_page |
154 |
_version_ |
1796303264709345280 |