Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins
This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and...
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ftpolimilanoiris:oai:re.public.polimi.it:11311/1013533 2024-04-21T07:58:38+00:00 Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins COLOMBO, IVO PORTA, GIOVANNI MICHELE GUADAGNINI, ALBERTO Ruffo, Paolo Colombo, Ivo Porta, GIOVANNI MICHELE Ruffo, Paolo Guadagnini, Alberto 2017 http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1013533 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 http://www.springerlink.com/content/102028/ eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000395001300009 volume:25 issue:2 firstpage:385 lastpage:403 numberofpages:19 journal:HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1013533 doi:10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84995810468 http://www.springerlink.com/content/102028/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Compaction Inverse modeling Overpressure Sedimentary basin Uncertainty propagation Water Science and Technology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftpolimilanoiris https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 2024-03-25T16:33:11Z This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Alaska RE.PUBLIC@POLIMI - Research Publications at Politecnico di Milano Hydrogeology Journal 25 2 385 403 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RE.PUBLIC@POLIMI - Research Publications at Politecnico di Milano |
op_collection_id |
ftpolimilanoiris |
language |
English |
topic |
Compaction Inverse modeling Overpressure Sedimentary basin Uncertainty propagation Water Science and Technology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) |
spellingShingle |
Compaction Inverse modeling Overpressure Sedimentary basin Uncertainty propagation Water Science and Technology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) COLOMBO, IVO PORTA, GIOVANNI MICHELE GUADAGNINI, ALBERTO Ruffo, Paolo Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
topic_facet |
Compaction Inverse modeling Overpressure Sedimentary basin Uncertainty propagation Water Science and Technology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) |
description |
This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings. |
author2 |
Colombo, Ivo Porta, GIOVANNI MICHELE Ruffo, Paolo Guadagnini, Alberto |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
COLOMBO, IVO PORTA, GIOVANNI MICHELE GUADAGNINI, ALBERTO Ruffo, Paolo |
author_facet |
COLOMBO, IVO PORTA, GIOVANNI MICHELE GUADAGNINI, ALBERTO Ruffo, Paolo |
author_sort |
COLOMBO, IVO |
title |
Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
title_short |
Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
title_full |
Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
title_sort |
uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1013533 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 http://www.springerlink.com/content/102028/ |
genre |
Bering Sea Alaska |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Alaska |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000395001300009 volume:25 issue:2 firstpage:385 lastpage:403 numberofpages:19 journal:HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL http://hdl.handle.net/11311/1013533 doi:10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84995810468 http://www.springerlink.com/content/102028/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1493-9 |
container_title |
Hydrogeology Journal |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
385 |
op_container_end_page |
403 |
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1796939712400719872 |