Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios
Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing...
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ftplymouthml:oai:plymsea.ac.uk:6882 2023-05-15T17:31:22+02:00 Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios Mullon, C Steinmetz, F Merino, G Fernandes, JA Cheung, WWL Butenschon, M Barange, M 2016-01-24 text http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/ http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/1/Mullon%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20Quantitative%20pathways%20for%20Northeast%20Atlantic%20fishe.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 en eng http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/1/Mullon%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20Quantitative%20pathways%20for%20Northeast%20Atlantic%20fishe.pdf Mullon, C; Steinmetz, F; Merino, G; Fernandes, JA; Cheung, WWL; Butenschon, M; Barange, M. 2016 Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios. Ecological Modelling, 320. 273-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027> Earth Sciences Economics Fisheries Marine Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftplymouthml https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 2022-09-13T05:48:49Z Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA - Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PML) Ecological Modelling 320 273 291 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA - Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PML) |
op_collection_id |
ftplymouthml |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Economics Fisheries Marine Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Economics Fisheries Marine Sciences Mullon, C Steinmetz, F Merino, G Fernandes, JA Cheung, WWL Butenschon, M Barange, M Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Economics Fisheries Marine Sciences |
description |
Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mullon, C Steinmetz, F Merino, G Fernandes, JA Cheung, WWL Butenschon, M Barange, M |
author_facet |
Mullon, C Steinmetz, F Merino, G Fernandes, JA Cheung, WWL Butenschon, M Barange, M |
author_sort |
Mullon, C |
title |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_short |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_full |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_sort |
quantitative pathways for northeast atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/ http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/1/Mullon%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20Quantitative%20pathways%20for%20Northeast%20Atlantic%20fishe.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6882/1/Mullon%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20Quantitative%20pathways%20for%20Northeast%20Atlantic%20fishe.pdf Mullon, C; Steinmetz, F; Merino, G; Fernandes, JA; Cheung, WWL; Butenschon, M; Barange, M. 2016 Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios. Ecological Modelling, 320. 273-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
container_title |
Ecological Modelling |
container_volume |
320 |
container_start_page |
273 |
op_container_end_page |
291 |
_version_ |
1766128890298761216 |