Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model
Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Biocli...
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ftplymouthml:oai:plymsea.ac.uk:5523 2024-01-14T10:08:57+01:00 Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model Fernandes, JA Cheung, W Jennings, S Butenschon, M de Mora, L Frölicher, TL Barange, M Grant, A 2013-08-01 text https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/ https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/1/Fernandes%20et%20al_JA%20finalV2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 en eng Wiley https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/1/Fernandes%20et%20al_JA%20finalV2.pdf Fernandes, JA, Cheung, W, Jennings, S, Butenschon, M, de Mora, L, Frölicher, TL, Barange, M and Grant, A 2013 Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Global Change Biology, 19 (8). 2596-2607. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231> cc_by_nc_4 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftplymouthml https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 2023-12-15T00:08:13Z Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA - Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PML) Global Change Biology 19 8 2596 2607 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Plymouth Marine Science Electronic Archive (PlyMSEA - Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PML) |
op_collection_id |
ftplymouthml |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences Fernandes, JA Cheung, W Jennings, S Butenschon, M de Mora, L Frölicher, TL Barange, M Grant, A Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
topic_facet |
Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences |
description |
Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fernandes, JA Cheung, W Jennings, S Butenschon, M de Mora, L Frölicher, TL Barange, M Grant, A |
author_facet |
Fernandes, JA Cheung, W Jennings, S Butenschon, M de Mora, L Frölicher, TL Barange, M Grant, A |
author_sort |
Fernandes, JA |
title |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_short |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_full |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_sort |
modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/ https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/1/Fernandes%20et%20al_JA%20finalV2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5523/1/Fernandes%20et%20al_JA%20finalV2.pdf Fernandes, JA, Cheung, W, Jennings, S, Butenschon, M, de Mora, L, Frölicher, TL, Barange, M and Grant, A 2013 Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Global Change Biology, 19 (8). 2596-2607. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231> |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_4 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
2596 |
op_container_end_page |
2607 |
_version_ |
1788063393361428480 |