Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change
Climate change and species invasions are among the most serious threats to global biodiversity, and climate change will further greatly alter the distribution of invasive species. The red drum Sciaenops ocellatus (Linnaeus, 1766) has established non-native populations in many parts of the world, lea...
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Regional Euro-Asian Biological Invasions Centre
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 https://aquaticinvasions.arphahub.com/article/109001/ |
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ftpensoft:10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 2023-10-09T21:55:34+02:00 Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change Li,Jintao Li,Linjie Xing,Yankuo Wang,Linlong Zhu,Yugui Kang,Bin 2023 text/html https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 https://aquaticinvasions.arphahub.com/article/109001/ en eng Regional Euro-Asian Biological Invasions Centre info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/1818-5487 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1798-6540 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY 4.0 Aquatic Invasions 18(3): 385-400 climate warming species distribution model species interaction aquaculture management Research Article 2023 ftpensoft https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 2023-09-19T00:06:47Z Climate change and species invasions are among the most serious threats to global biodiversity, and climate change will further greatly alter the distribution of invasive species. The red drum Sciaenops ocellatus (Linnaeus, 1766) has established non-native populations in many parts of the world, leading to negative effects on local ecosystems. In this study, based on 455 global occurrence records (38 of which were in Chinese waters) and 5 biologically relevant variables (average ocean bottom temperature, ocean bottom average salinity, ocean bottom average flow rate, depth, and distance from shore), a weighted ensemble model was developed to predict the current potential distribution of red drum in Chinese waters and the future distribution under two climate change scenarios (RCP 26 and RCP 85). Based on the True Skill Statistics (TSS) and the Area Under Curve (AUC), the ensemble model showed more accurate predictive performance than any single model. Among the five environmental variables, the average temperature was the most important environmental variable influencing the distribution of red drum. Ensemble model prediction showed that the current suitable habitat of red drum was mainly concentrated on the coast of Chinese mainland, around Hainan Island, and the western coastal waters of Taiwan Province (17~41°N). Projections in the 2050s and 2100s suggested that red drum would expand northwards under both future climate scenarios (RCP 26 and RCP 85), especially in the western part of the Yellow Sea and along the Bohai Sea coast, which should be involved in the management strategies to maintain ecosystem structure and function. Article in Journal/Newspaper Red drum Sciaenops ocellatus Pensoft Publishers Aquatic Invasions 18 3 385 400 |
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language |
English |
topic |
climate warming species distribution model species interaction aquaculture management |
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climate warming species distribution model species interaction aquaculture management Li,Jintao Li,Linjie Xing,Yankuo Wang,Linlong Zhu,Yugui Kang,Bin Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
topic_facet |
climate warming species distribution model species interaction aquaculture management |
description |
Climate change and species invasions are among the most serious threats to global biodiversity, and climate change will further greatly alter the distribution of invasive species. The red drum Sciaenops ocellatus (Linnaeus, 1766) has established non-native populations in many parts of the world, leading to negative effects on local ecosystems. In this study, based on 455 global occurrence records (38 of which were in Chinese waters) and 5 biologically relevant variables (average ocean bottom temperature, ocean bottom average salinity, ocean bottom average flow rate, depth, and distance from shore), a weighted ensemble model was developed to predict the current potential distribution of red drum in Chinese waters and the future distribution under two climate change scenarios (RCP 26 and RCP 85). Based on the True Skill Statistics (TSS) and the Area Under Curve (AUC), the ensemble model showed more accurate predictive performance than any single model. Among the five environmental variables, the average temperature was the most important environmental variable influencing the distribution of red drum. Ensemble model prediction showed that the current suitable habitat of red drum was mainly concentrated on the coast of Chinese mainland, around Hainan Island, and the western coastal waters of Taiwan Province (17~41°N). Projections in the 2050s and 2100s suggested that red drum would expand northwards under both future climate scenarios (RCP 26 and RCP 85), especially in the western part of the Yellow Sea and along the Bohai Sea coast, which should be involved in the management strategies to maintain ecosystem structure and function. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li,Jintao Li,Linjie Xing,Yankuo Wang,Linlong Zhu,Yugui Kang,Bin |
author_facet |
Li,Jintao Li,Linjie Xing,Yankuo Wang,Linlong Zhu,Yugui Kang,Bin |
author_sort |
Li,Jintao |
title |
Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
title_short |
Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
title_full |
Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in China’s coastal waters under climate change |
title_sort |
predicted increased distribution of non-native red drum in china’s coastal waters under climate change |
publisher |
Regional Euro-Asian Biological Invasions Centre |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 https://aquaticinvasions.arphahub.com/article/109001/ |
genre |
Red drum Sciaenops ocellatus |
genre_facet |
Red drum Sciaenops ocellatus |
op_source |
Aquatic Invasions 18(3): 385-400 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/1818-5487 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1798-6540 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY 4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.3.109001 |
container_title |
Aquatic Invasions |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
385 |
op_container_end_page |
400 |
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1779319539066994688 |