Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models
Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual c...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES
2016
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/438492 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003124 |
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net biome production net primary production heterotrophic respiration Representative Concentration Pathway climate change terrestrial carbon cycle PERMAFROST CARBON TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS FOREST DIEBACK CYCLE RESPIRATION VARIABILITY CO2 DROUGHT PROJECTIONS |
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net biome production net primary production heterotrophic respiration Representative Concentration Pathway climate change terrestrial carbon cycle PERMAFROST CARBON TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS FOREST DIEBACK CYCLE RESPIRATION VARIABILITY CO2 DROUGHT PROJECTIONS Liu, Yongwen Wang, Tao Huang, Mengtian Yao, Yitong Ciais, Philippe Piao, Shilong Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
topic_facet |
net biome production net primary production heterotrophic respiration Representative Concentration Pathway climate change terrestrial carbon cycle PERMAFROST CARBON TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS FOREST DIEBACK CYCLE RESPIRATION VARIABILITY CO2 DROUGHT PROJECTIONS |
description |
Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP ((Temp)(NBP)), NPP ((Temp)(NPP)), and Rh ((Temp)(Rh)) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled (Temp)(NPP) and (Temp)(Rh) appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged (Temp)(NBP). Tropical (Temp)(NBP) decreases in most models, due to decreasing (Temp)(NPP) and relatively stable (Temp)(Rh). Across models, the changes in (Temp)(NBP) can be mainly explained by changes in (Temp)(NPP) rather than changes in (Temp)(Rh), at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP ((Prec)(NBP)), NPP ((Prec)(NPP)), and Rh ((Prec)(Rh)) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in (Prec)(NBP) can be mainly explained by changes in (Prec)(NPP) rather than changes in (Prec)(Rh) in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41125004]; Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection grant [201209031]; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China SCI(E) ARTICLE slpiao@pku.edu.cn 3 903-918 121 |
author2 |
Piao, SL (reprint author), Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.; Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China.; Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China. Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. UMR CEA CNRS, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France. Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China. Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. |
format |
Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liu, Yongwen Wang, Tao Huang, Mengtian Yao, Yitong Ciais, Philippe Piao, Shilong |
author_facet |
Liu, Yongwen Wang, Tao Huang, Mengtian Yao, Yitong Ciais, Philippe Piao, Shilong |
author_sort |
Liu, Yongwen |
title |
Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
title_short |
Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
title_full |
Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
title_fullStr |
Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models |
title_sort |
changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by cmip5 earth system models |
publisher |
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/438492 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003124 |
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permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
SCI |
op_relation |
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES.2016,121,(3),903-918. 1397562 2169-8953 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/438492 2169-8961 doi:10.1002/2015JG003124 WOS:000374345000020 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11897/438492 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003124 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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121 |
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903 |
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ftpekinguniv:oai:localhost:20.500.11897/438492 2023-05-15T17:57:43+02:00 Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models Liu, Yongwen Wang, Tao Huang, Mengtian Yao, Yitong Ciais, Philippe Piao, Shilong Piao, SL (reprint author), Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.; Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China.; Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China. Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. UMR CEA CNRS, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France. Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China. Piao, SL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. 2016 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/438492 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003124 en eng JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES.2016,121,(3),903-918. 1397562 2169-8953 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/438492 2169-8961 doi:10.1002/2015JG003124 WOS:000374345000020 SCI net biome production net primary production heterotrophic respiration Representative Concentration Pathway climate change terrestrial carbon cycle PERMAFROST CARBON TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS FOREST DIEBACK CYCLE RESPIRATION VARIABILITY CO2 DROUGHT PROJECTIONS Journal 2016 ftpekinguniv https://doi.org/20.500.11897/438492 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003124 2021-08-01T10:51:01Z Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP ((Temp)(NBP)), NPP ((Temp)(NPP)), and Rh ((Temp)(Rh)) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled (Temp)(NPP) and (Temp)(Rh) appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged (Temp)(NBP). Tropical (Temp)(NBP) decreases in most models, due to decreasing (Temp)(NPP) and relatively stable (Temp)(Rh). Across models, the changes in (Temp)(NBP) can be mainly explained by changes in (Temp)(NPP) rather than changes in (Temp)(Rh), at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP ((Prec)(NBP)), NPP ((Prec)(NPP)), and Rh ((Prec)(Rh)) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in (Prec)(NBP) can be mainly explained by changes in (Prec)(NPP) rather than changes in (Prec)(Rh) in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41125004]; Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection grant [201209031]; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China SCI(E) ARTICLE slpiao@pku.edu.cn 3 903-918 121 Journal/Newspaper permafrost Peking University Institutional Repository (PKU IR) Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 121 3 903 918 |