On the Long-Term Climate Memory in the Surface Air Temperature Records over Antarctica: A Nonnegligible Factor for Trend Evaluation

• Published in: Journal of Climate
• Main Authors: Yuan, Naiming, Ding, Minghu, Huang, Yan, Fu, Zuntao, Xoplaki, Elena, Luterbacher, Juerg
• Other Authors: Yuan, NM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Climate Syst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China., Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China., Univ Giessen, Dept Geog Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, D-35390 Giessen, Germany., Peking Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmospher Studies, Sch Phys, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China., Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou, Peoples R China., Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Climate Syst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
• Format: Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2015
• Subjects: DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS; RANGE CORRELATIONS; TIME-SERIES; ICE; VARIABILITY; PERSISTENCE; DEPENDENCE; PENINSULA; SEQUENCES; LAW; Antarctic; Byrd; Byrd Station; East Antarctica; The Antarctic; West Antarctica; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/417700; https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00733.1

In this study, observed temperature records of 12 stations from Antarctica island, coastline, and continental areas are analyzed by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). After Monte Carlo significance tests, different long-term climate memory (LTM) behaviors are found: temperatures from coastal and island stations are characterized by significant long-term climate memory whereas temperatures over the Antarctic continent behave more like white noise, except for the Byrd station, which is located in the West Antarctica. It is argued that the emergence of LTM may be dominated by the interactions between local weather system and external slow-varying systems (ocean), and therefore the different LTM behaviors between temperatures over the Byrd station and that over other continental stations can be considered as a reflection of the different climatic environments between West and East Antarctica. By calculating the trend significance with the effect of LTM taken into account, and further comparing the results with those obtained from assumptions of autoregressive (AR) process and white noise, it is found that 1) most of the Antarctic stations do not show any significant trends over the past several decades, and 2) more rigorous trend evaluation can be obtained if the effect of LTM is considered. Therefore, it is emphasized that for air temperatures over Antarctica, especially for the Antarctica coastline, island, and the west continental areas, LTM is nonnegligible for trend evaluation. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41405074, 41206179]; climate change project of CMA [CCSF201332]; Basic Research Fund of CAMS [2013Z002] SCI(E) EI ARTICLE [e-mail] 15 5922-5934 28