Probabilistic assessment of the impact of uncertainty in Antarctic viscoelastic properties on 5000-yr future Antarctic projections performed with the f.ETISh model

• Main Authors: Coulon, Violaine, Bulthuis, Kevin, Sun, Sainan, Haubner, Konstanze, Pattyn, Frank
• Format: Dataset
• Language: English
• Published: PANGAEA 2020
• Subjects: Antarctic ice-sheet; Binary Object; Binary Object (File Size); Binary Object (Media Type); File content; glacial isostatic adjustment; Ice-sheet modelling; pan-Antarctica; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Annals of Glaciology; Antarc*; Antarctica; Ice Sheet; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.911805; https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.911805

We perform simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over a time span of 5000 years, starting from present-day geometry, under the four extended RCP scenarios (Golledge et al., 2015) with the "fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet" model (f.ETISh; Pattyn et al., 2017) v1.4. All simulations are performed at a spatial resolution of 25 km. We perform a probabilistic assessment of the impact of uncertainties in Antarctic solid Earth rheological properties on the response of the Antarctic ice sheet for each RCP scenario. We consider four ELRA parameters (D_W, D_E, tau_W, tau_E) to be uncertain parameters and we assume the (prior) marginal probability distributions to follow log-uniform distributions. We determine probabilistic projections of the grounded-ice volume (Vg) as well as marginal probabilities of being ungrounded and Sobol sensitivity indices using Monte carlo estimation with 2000 samples. Each Monte carlo sample can be interpreted as a plausible solid Earth configuration for Antarctica, randomly sampled within the ELRA parameter space. For each of the 2000 Monte Carlo samples, we estimate the change in grounded-ice volume using the f.ETISh model and we determine the median values and quantiles of the projections as the sample medians and quantiles. Here, we provide time series (data every year) of the Antarctic grounded-ice volume for the ensemble of 2000 Monte Carlo simulations under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. These time series can be compared with those produced with the NOGIA (forced run without bedrock and sea-level adjustments) and UNIBED (ELRA model with fixed uniform parameters) experiments. We also provide gridded masks that define the limit of grounded ice in Antarctica at 7000 CE for the ensemble of 2000 Monte Carlo simulations under all RCP scenarios.