Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980
The modern and historic seismicity of the eastern Aleutian arc was thoroughly researched and shows clear evidence that the Shumagin Islands region of the arc has been ruptured at least partly by previous large or great earthquakes; has recurrence times for large earthquakes between 50 and 115 years;...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:5731791 2023-07-30T04:07:30+02:00 Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 Jacob, K.H. Davies, J.N. Sykes, L.R. 2013-07-29 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5731791 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5731791 https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5731791 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5731791 https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 doi:10.2172/5731791 58 GEOSCIENCES ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SEISMICITY DEFORMATION EARTH CRUST EARTHQUAKES EXPERIMENTAL DATA FORECASTING GRAPHS PROBABILITY RESEARCH PROGRAMS STRESSES TECTONICS VOLCANOES DATA DATA FORMS INFORMATION ISLANDS NUMERICAL DATA SEISMIC EVENTS 2013 ftosti https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 2023-07-11T10:42:10Z The modern and historic seismicity of the eastern Aleutian arc was thoroughly researched and shows clear evidence that the Shumagin Islands region of the arc has been ruptured at least partly by previous large or great earthquakes; has recurrence times for large earthquakes between 50 and 115 years; has presently the properties of a seismic gap, i.e., was not ruptured by a large or great earthquake for at least 76 years; shows a donut configuration of modest seismicity including high-stress-drop events around the rim of the expected rupture zone of a future large earthquake. From this combined evidence it is concluded that the likelihood for a large or great earthquake to occur within the Shumagin Island gap is high (about 50% probability) within the next decade and very high (about 80% to 90% probability) within the next three decades. This study includes detailed determinations of stress, stress-drop, and other source parameters of moderate earthquakes in the Shumagin islands gap, and similar results for the St. Elias earthquake near the Yakataga gap in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Volcano seismicity, crustal deformantion, and P-residuals continue to be monitored and analyzed in the eastern Aleutian arc segment. 36 figures, 3 tables. Other/Unknown Material Alaska Aleutian Islands SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Gulf of Alaska |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
58 GEOSCIENCES ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SEISMICITY DEFORMATION EARTH CRUST EARTHQUAKES EXPERIMENTAL DATA FORECASTING GRAPHS PROBABILITY RESEARCH PROGRAMS STRESSES TECTONICS VOLCANOES DATA DATA FORMS INFORMATION ISLANDS NUMERICAL DATA SEISMIC EVENTS |
spellingShingle |
58 GEOSCIENCES ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SEISMICITY DEFORMATION EARTH CRUST EARTHQUAKES EXPERIMENTAL DATA FORECASTING GRAPHS PROBABILITY RESEARCH PROGRAMS STRESSES TECTONICS VOLCANOES DATA DATA FORMS INFORMATION ISLANDS NUMERICAL DATA SEISMIC EVENTS Jacob, K.H. Davies, J.N. Sykes, L.R. Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
topic_facet |
58 GEOSCIENCES ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SEISMICITY DEFORMATION EARTH CRUST EARTHQUAKES EXPERIMENTAL DATA FORECASTING GRAPHS PROBABILITY RESEARCH PROGRAMS STRESSES TECTONICS VOLCANOES DATA DATA FORMS INFORMATION ISLANDS NUMERICAL DATA SEISMIC EVENTS |
description |
The modern and historic seismicity of the eastern Aleutian arc was thoroughly researched and shows clear evidence that the Shumagin Islands region of the arc has been ruptured at least partly by previous large or great earthquakes; has recurrence times for large earthquakes between 50 and 115 years; has presently the properties of a seismic gap, i.e., was not ruptured by a large or great earthquake for at least 76 years; shows a donut configuration of modest seismicity including high-stress-drop events around the rim of the expected rupture zone of a future large earthquake. From this combined evidence it is concluded that the likelihood for a large or great earthquake to occur within the Shumagin Island gap is high (about 50% probability) within the next decade and very high (about 80% to 90% probability) within the next three decades. This study includes detailed determinations of stress, stress-drop, and other source parameters of moderate earthquakes in the Shumagin islands gap, and similar results for the St. Elias earthquake near the Yakataga gap in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Volcano seismicity, crustal deformantion, and P-residuals continue to be monitored and analyzed in the eastern Aleutian arc segment. 36 figures, 3 tables. |
author |
Jacob, K.H. Davies, J.N. Sykes, L.R. |
author_facet |
Jacob, K.H. Davies, J.N. Sykes, L.R. |
author_sort |
Jacob, K.H. |
title |
Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
title_short |
Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
title_full |
Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
title_fullStr |
Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. Annual progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980 |
title_sort |
comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern aleutian arc and associated volcanic systems. annual progress report, march 1, 1979-february 29, 1980 |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5731791 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5731791 https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 |
geographic |
Gulf of Alaska |
geographic_facet |
Gulf of Alaska |
genre |
Alaska Aleutian Islands |
genre_facet |
Alaska Aleutian Islands |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5731791 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5731791 https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 doi:10.2172/5731791 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2172/5731791 |
_version_ |
1772820888462295040 |