High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation
Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recen...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:2373165 2024-09-30T14:29:42+00:00 High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris K. Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna 2024-08-30 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2373165 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2373165 https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2373165 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2373165 https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 doi:10.2172/2373165 2024 ftosti https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 2024-09-03T23:46:18Z Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s. Other/Unknown Material Arctic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
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description |
Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s. |
author |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris K. Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna |
spellingShingle |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris K. Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
author_facet |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris K. Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna |
author_sort |
Chylek, Petr |
title |
High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
title_short |
High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
title_full |
High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
title_fullStr |
High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation |
title_sort |
high values of the arctic amplification in early decades of the 21st century: causes of discrepancy by cmip6 models between observation and simulation |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2373165 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2373165 https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2373165 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2373165 https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 doi:10.2172/2373165 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2172/2373165 |
_version_ |
1811634932542341120 |