Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)
We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced fr...
Published in: | Atmosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1975057 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1975057 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 |
id |
ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1975057 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1975057 2023-07-30T04:01:23+02:00 Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna 2023-06-07 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1975057 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1975057 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1975057 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1975057 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 doi:10.3390/atmos14050820 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 2023-07-11T10:27:17Z We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful. Other/Unknown Material Arctic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Atmosphere 14 5 820 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful. |
author |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna |
author_facet |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra Krishna |
author_sort |
Chylek, Petr |
title |
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
title_short |
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
title_full |
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2) |
title_sort |
arctic amplification in the community earth system models (cesm1 and cesm2) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1975057 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1975057 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1975057 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1975057 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 doi:10.3390/atmos14050820 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
820 |
_version_ |
1772812123684995072 |