Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis
Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative imp...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1971991 2023-07-30T04:06:17+02:00 Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis Zhuang, Qianlai Guo, Mingyang Melack, John M. Lan, Xin Tan, Zeli Oh, Youmi Leung, L. Ruby 2023-05-08 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1971991 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1971991 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1971991 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1971991 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 doi:10.1029/2022jg007137 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 2023-07-11T10:26:52Z Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase, permafrost thaw, and thermokarst lake area changes for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr -1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 57-86% growth in emissions from lakes. While more active methanogenesis and additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost will enhance methane production under warming, methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the release from lakes. Other/Unknown Material permafrost Thermokarst SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 128 3 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Zhuang, Qianlai Guo, Mingyang Melack, John M. Lan, Xin Tan, Zeli Oh, Youmi Leung, L. Ruby Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase, permafrost thaw, and thermokarst lake area changes for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr -1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 57-86% growth in emissions from lakes. While more active methanogenesis and additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost will enhance methane production under warming, methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the release from lakes. |
author |
Zhuang, Qianlai Guo, Mingyang Melack, John M. Lan, Xin Tan, Zeli Oh, Youmi Leung, L. Ruby |
author_facet |
Zhuang, Qianlai Guo, Mingyang Melack, John M. Lan, Xin Tan, Zeli Oh, Youmi Leung, L. Ruby |
author_sort |
Zhuang, Qianlai |
title |
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
title_short |
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
title_full |
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
title_fullStr |
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process–Based Modeling Analysis |
title_sort |
current and future global lake methane emissions: a process–based modeling analysis |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1971991 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1971991 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1971991 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1971991 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 doi:10.1029/2022jg007137 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007137 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1772818788877598720 |