Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inac...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1896495 2023-07-30T04:05:25+02:00 Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Sena, Ana C. T. Patricola, Christina M. Loring, Burlen 2023-02-10 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1896495 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1896495 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1896495 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1896495 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 doi:10.1029/2022gl100267 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 2023-07-11T10:15:57Z North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere-only simulations forced by sea-surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid-tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Geophysical Research Letters 49 21 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Sena, Ana C. T. Patricola, Christina M. Loring, Burlen Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere-only simulations forced by sea-surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid-tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity. |
author |
Sena, Ana C. T. Patricola, Christina M. Loring, Burlen |
author_facet |
Sena, Ana C. T. Patricola, Christina M. Loring, Burlen |
author_sort |
Sena, Ana C. T. |
title |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_short |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_full |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_fullStr |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model |
title_sort |
future changes in active and inactive atlantic hurricane seasons in the energy exascale earth system model |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1896495 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1896495 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1896495 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1896495 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 doi:10.1029/2022gl100267 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100267 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
21 |
_version_ |
1772817310604591104 |