Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models
While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. Dur...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1874930 2023-07-30T04:00:58+02:00 Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. 2023-06-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1874930 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1874930 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1874930 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1874930 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 doi:10.1029/2022gl099371 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 2023-07-11T10:13:19Z While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. Other/Unknown Material Arctic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 49 13 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. |
author |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. |
author_facet |
Chylek, Petr Folland, Chris Klett, James D. Wang, Muyin Hengartner, Nick Lesins, Glen Dubey, Manvendra K. |
author_sort |
Chylek, Petr |
title |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_short |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_full |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_fullStr |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models |
title_sort |
annual mean arctic amplification 1970–2020: observed and simulated by cmip6 climate models |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1874930 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1874930 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1874930 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1874930 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 doi:10.1029/2022gl099371 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099371 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
13 |
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1772811679153782784 |