Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international project...
Published in: | Nature |
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2022
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1854350 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1854350 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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58 GEOSCIENCES |
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58 GEOSCIENCES Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
topic_facet |
58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25to 13centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. Theprojected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing touncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5degrees Celsius warming and 42centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_short |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_sort |
projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1854350 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1854350 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1854350 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1854350 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
593 |
container_issue |
7857 |
container_start_page |
74 |
op_container_end_page |
82 |
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1772816776119189504 |
spelling |
ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1854350 2023-07-30T03:57:18+02:00 Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2022-05-05 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1854350 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1854350 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1854350 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1854350 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 58 GEOSCIENCES 2022 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 2023-07-11T10:11:03Z The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25to 13centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. Theprojected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing touncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5degrees Celsius warming and 42centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic The Antarctic Nature 593 7857 74 82 |