Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle
Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K)...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1847915 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1847915 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1847915 2023-07-30T04:07:00+02:00 Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle McCoy, Daniel T. Field, Paul Frazer, Michelle E. Zelinka, Mark D. Elsaesser, Gregory S. Mülmenstädt, Johannes Tan, Ivy Myers, Timothy A. Lebo, Zachary J. 2023-07-04 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1847915 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1847915 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1847915 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1847915 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 doi:10.1029/2021gl097154 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 2023-07-11T10:10:27Z Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical $SW_{FB}$’s that are more positive than those simulated in the previous generation of GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$ can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. In this work, the response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$— inconsistent with extreme ECS. Other/Unknown Material Southern Ocean SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Southern Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 49 8 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES McCoy, Daniel T. Field, Paul Frazer, Michelle E. Zelinka, Mark D. Elsaesser, Gregory S. Mülmenstädt, Johannes Tan, Ivy Myers, Timothy A. Lebo, Zachary J. Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical $SW_{FB}$’s that are more positive than those simulated in the previous generation of GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$ can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. In this work, the response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$— inconsistent with extreme ECS. |
author |
McCoy, Daniel T. Field, Paul Frazer, Michelle E. Zelinka, Mark D. Elsaesser, Gregory S. Mülmenstädt, Johannes Tan, Ivy Myers, Timothy A. Lebo, Zachary J. |
author_facet |
McCoy, Daniel T. Field, Paul Frazer, Michelle E. Zelinka, Mark D. Elsaesser, Gregory S. Mülmenstädt, Johannes Tan, Ivy Myers, Timothy A. Lebo, Zachary J. |
author_sort |
McCoy, Daniel T. |
title |
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
title_short |
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
title_full |
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
title_fullStr |
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
title_sort |
extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1847915 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1847915 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1847915 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1847915 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 doi:10.1029/2021gl097154 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097154 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1772820070414680064 |